Trump's plan to delete Russian oil funds could increase prices

Trump's plan to delete Russian oil funds could increase prices

The US President Donald Trump tries again to end the to end it in Ukraine -this time not by targeting Russia, but by attacking the countries from Russia Buy.

The main actors: China and India

At the top of this list China and India , two of the most important economies in the world. Trump explained that the United States could impose economic punishments to these countries if Russia does not agree to a peace agreement within 50 days

global effects on oil prices

Such a measure could not only mess up two of Asia's largest markets, but also have an impact on the entire world events, since India and China try to change their oil supply and find alternative sources to avoid high US tariffs or other sanctions. According to the international energy agency, Russia earned around $ 192 billion in the past year with the sale of oil. A stop of these income could be effective, but also expensive - and not just for Moscow. Oil prices could skyrocket globally if Russia's more than 7 million exported barrel suddenly fall out.

reactions to Trump's threat

The oil markets have so far hardly reacted to Trump's threat, mainly because of the uncertainty as to whether Trump will keep his word and how he could implement it. China also seems to be unimpressed. A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that "compulsion" would not end the conflict in Ukraine. India has not yet commented.

a 'hammer method'?

After the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian President Vladimir Putin, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union import bans and price upper limits imposed on Russian oil. However, the exporters of Russia react quickly and redirected the rivers of their considerable supplies from west to east, where the purchases of reduced oil have increased significantly in particular in China and India.

The consequences for the global markets

Trump recently announced its own plan with which the United States wanted to introduce "secondary physicians", with an official employee specified that Trump said with secondary sanctions against other countries that buy Russian oil. Matt Whitaker, the US ambassador at NATO, said that they are sanctions against countries that buy oil from Russia, and that this will have "dramatic effects on the Russian economy".

challenges and risks of drastic measures

Analysts warn that the introduction of such tariffs could have massive consequences. Russian crude oil accounts for 36 % of the imports of India and almost a fifth of China's imports, which means that Russia is the largest supplier for both countries. This could lead to significant price increases on the global oil market. While these measures could exert pressure on Putin, they could also increase the pressure on Trump, especially since it loathes high oil prices.

The question of enforcement

The possibilities of the United States to enforce tariffs and sanctions remain unclear. Experts suggest that more restrictive diplomacy may be more effective than flat -rate tariffs. "The probability is high that (secondary physician) is too disruptive to be ready to use it," says Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects in London.

conclusion: symbolic threats or serious measures?

The threatened political measures seem to have two main goals: Russia signal that it has to fear its profits and put the trading partners under pressure. While experts say that Moscow is carefully pursuing these threats, it is unlikely that Beijing and Neu-Delhi Putin will put pressure on it as long as they are not absolutely certain how Ernst Trump's threats are.