Risks of Russian funds for Moldova's presidential elections

Risks of Russian funds for Moldova's presidential elections

On Sunday, Moldovans will vote in the crucial second round of presidential elections. These elections could decide whether the post-Soviet country continues its course towards Europe or falls back into the Kremlin's sphere of influence.

Maia Sandu and the EU rapprochement

Maia Sandu, the pro-Western president, is seeking re-election after leading Moldova closer to the European Union than ever before. This comes against the backdrop of the Russian war in Ukraine, which is raging on Moldova's eastern border.

First round results and election scandals

Sandu received 42% of the vote in the first round, which took place on the same day as a referendum on EU membership, which was only successful by a narrow majority. Both elections were affected by a large-scale vote-rigging affair linked to the Kremlin, which Sandu described as an "unprecedented" attack on Moldova's democracy.

In the second round, Sandu will face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general running for the pro-Russian Socialist Party. If some of the pro-Kremlin parties support Stoianoglo, the second round could be extremely close.

Criticism of Stoianoglo and democratic values

During last Sunday's presidential debate, Sandu described Stoianoglo as a "Trojan horse" aiming to infiltrate the Moldovan capital Chișinău in the interests of the Kremlin. Analysts note that this statement is not just rhetorical. Valeriu Pasha, director of WatchDog.MD, a think tank, told CNN: "It's about whether we have a president who is elected by the citizens or someone who wins because Russian dirty money paid for it."

Election fraud and social challenges

Before the last election, Russian-backed oligarch Ilan Shor offered to pay people to elect a Russian-friendly candidate and stop the referendum. Sandu said the plan was aimed at bribing about 300,000 voters - around 10% of the population.

Despite polling just over 10% before the election, Stoianoglo received more than 26% of the vote in the first round. Both the Kremlin and Shor have denied any interference, but Moldovan officials have warned that the second election could also be the target of similar manipulation.

The challenges of Maia Sandu's tenure

Analysts point out that the first round also revealed real opposition to Sandu, whose first term was marked by successive crises. “First there was the Covid-19 pandemic, then Russia’s war in Ukraine, and finally the gas crisis,” explained Maksim Samorukov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Inflation and social unrest

Although Sandu made Moldova independent of Russian gas, it did so at a high price for one of Europe's poorest countries. Inflation rose to over 30% at times, leading to an increase in... Poverty led.

Some critics also criticized Sandu's "cynical" decision to hold the EU referendum on the same day as the presidential election, positioning herself as the only politician who could lead Moldova into Europe. "The government's plan was that the European integration issue would increase support for Maia Sandu. However, it turned out to be the opposite: dissatisfaction with Maia Sandu decreased support for European integration," said Samurokov.

Stoianoglo's mixed message

Stoianoglo is trying to capitalize on the dissatisfaction with Sandu by positioning himself in both camps. He has called for a "reset" of relations with Moscow and said he is ready to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, while emphasizing his commitment to EU membership.

His program is therefore a mixture of contradictory policies. "Either you support European integration or you promote cooperation with Moscow. It is very difficult to reconcile both," said Samurokov.

The decisive elections for Moldova

Moldovan officials are preparing for a second round of elections that could be marked by pro-Russian interference. A defeat for Sandu would be a major blow to Moldova's hopes of a European future.

A government friendly to Russia could also lead to further problems in Transnistria, a separatist region where about 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed. Officials have long questioned whether Transnistria could potentially become a second front in the Ukraine war.

"The worst scenario is that they take control of the parliament, gradually eliminating democratic institutions including free and fair elections. After that, they would use Moldova as a bridgehead against Ukraine," Pasha told CNN.

A look at the region

Moldova's elections come a week after elections in Georgia, another former communist state where Russia is trying to maintain its influence. Following the victory of the increasingly autocratic Georgian Dream party, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had “won” in Georgia and was on track to do the same in Moldova. Sunday's election will decide whether he is right.