Risks of Russian funds for Moldova's presidential election

Risks of Russian funds for Moldova's presidential election

On Sunday, the Moldovers coordinate in the decisive second round of the presidential elections. These elections could decide whether the post-Soviet country continues its course towards Europe or falls back into the sphere of influence of the Kremlin.

Maia Sandu and the EU approach

Maia Sandu, the pro-Western President, strives for a re-election after she has taken Moldau closer to the European Union than ever before. This happens against the background of the Russian war in Ukraine, which rages on the eastern border.

results of the first round and election scandals

Sandu received 42% of the votes in the first round, which took place on the same day as a referendum on EU membership, which was only successful with a short majority. Both elections were affected by a large -scale fault affairs, combined with the Kremlin, which Sandu described as a "no example" attack on Democracy Moldaus.

In the second round, Sandu competes against Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former Attorney General who runs for the Pro-Russian Party of the Socialists. If part of the Kremlin -friendly parties support Stoianoglo, the second round could be extremely scarce.

criticism of Stoianoglo and democratic values

During the presidential debate on the last Sunday, Sandu Stoianoglo described as a "Trojan horse", which aims to infiltrate the Moldovian capital of Chișinău in the interest of the Kremlin. Analysts find that this statement is not just rhetorical. Valeriu Pasha, director of Watchdog.md, a think tank, said to CNN: "It's about whether we have a president who is elected by the citizens or someone who wins because Russian dirty money has paid for it."

election fraud and social challenges

Before the past elections, the Russian supported Oligarch Ilan Shor to pay people to choose a Russian friendly candidate and stop the referendum. Sandu explained that the plan aims to bribe around 300,000 voters - around 10% of the population.

Despite a survey of just over 10% before the election, Stoianoglo achieved more than 26% of the votes in the first round. Both the Kremlin and SHOR have contested any interference, but Moldova civil servants have warned that the second choice of similar manipulations could also be.

The challenges of Maia Sandu's term in office

Analysts indicate that the first round also revealed real resistance to Sandu, whose first term of office was characterized by successive crises. "First there was the Covid 19 pandemic, then the war of Russia in Ukraine and finally the gas crisis," said Maksim Samorukov, a fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

inflation and social unrest

Although Sandu Moldau made it independent of Russian gas, this happened at a high price for one of the poorest countries in Europe. Inflation temporarily increased to over 30%, which increased to an increase in poverty

Some critics also criticized Sandus "cynical" decision to prevent the EU referendum on the same day as the presidential elections, which put her as the only politician who could lead Moldau to Europe. "The government's plan was that the European integration question would increase support for Maia Sandu. However, it turned out to be the opposite: dissatisfaction with Maia Sandu reduced support for European integration," said Samurokov.

stoianogless message

Stoianoglo tries to benefit from the dissatisfaction with Sandu by positioning itself in both camps. He has asked for a “restart” of relationships with Moscow and declared that he would be ready to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin while at the same time emphasizing his obligation to membership.

his program is therefore a mixture of contradictory policies. "Either you support European integration or you promote cooperation with Moscow. It is very difficult to reconcile both," says Samurokov.

The decisive elections for Moldau

Moldovan officials prepare for a second round of the elections, which could be shaped by pro-Russian interference. A defeat for Sandu would be a hard setback for Moldaus hopes for a European future.

A government friendly from Russia could also lead to further problems in Transnistria, a separatist area in which around 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed. Officials have long questioned whether transnistria could possibly become a second front in the Ukraine secretary.

"The worst scenario is that they take control of the parliament, gradually eliminate democratic institutions, including free and fair elections. Then they would use Moldova as a bridge head against Ukraine," said Pasha to Cnn.

A look at the region

The elections in Moldau take place a week after the elections in Georgia, another former communist state in which Russia tries to maintain its influence. After the victory of the increasingly autocratic party "Georgian Dream", Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj said that Russia "won" in Georgia and was on the way to dealing with the same in Moldova. The election on Sunday will decide whether he is right.