Russia is advancing in Kursk and endangering Ukraine's basis for negotiations

Russia is advancing in Kursk and endangering Ukraine's basis for negotiations

Ukraine's situation in Russia's Kursk region has deteriorated sharply, threatening Kiev's only territorial negotiating leverage at a crucial stage in the war. Military bloggers from both sides report that Ukraine is under pressure - Russian forces have reportedly used a gas pipeline to carry out a surprise attack in a specific area. On Saturday, Russia's Defense Ministry said its troops had captured three more settlements.

The Ukrainian offensive in Kursk

Ukraine launched an unexpected push into Kursk in August by rapidly seizing territory, marking Russia's first ground invasion by a foreign power since World War II. In addition to seizing land that could potentially be exchanged for Russian-occupied territory, the offensive aimed to divert Moscow's resources from the front in the east.

Diplomatic challenges and military setbacks

But since then, Ukraine has struggled to hold onto its territory in Kursk and faces a fundamentally changed diplomatic context as U.S. President Donald Trump puts pressure on Kiev to force peace by cutting off military aid and intelligence sharing. Military bloggers from Ukraine and Russia warn that Kiev's control over the region is more at risk than ever as Russian troops, backed by North Korean forces, carry out incessant attacks.

Strategic attacks on logistics

Latest reports suggest that Russia is targeting the border town of Sudzha in a bid to cut off a key logistical supply route for Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian military blogger Yuriy Butusov reported that Russian forces entered Sudzha on Saturday via a gas pipeline. “The Russians used a gas pipeline to deploy an attack group undetected by drones and insert themselves into our battle formations,” Butusov wrote. He added that the pipeline was now under increased surveillance and Moscow troops there were being “eliminated”.

superiority of Russian troops

However, Butusov warned that Russian and North Korean troops in the Kursk region have a “significant advantage in strength” and are “attacking continuously.” About 12,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed to Kursk, and their arrival has bolstered Russia's offensive operations within its own borders. If the Russians fully recapture Kursk, this could result in them transferring their forces to eastern Ukraine.

Difficult conditions for the Ukrainian troops

"It's hard, but we're working," a Ukrainian soldier told CNN. “The Koreans keep coming back.” An unofficial Russian military blogger gave a similar report about the town of Sudzha, claiming that about 100 Russian soldiers who had sneaked into the settlement via the pipeline - an action made possible after Kyiv suspended Russian gas supplies to the European Union on January 1.

Dangers and logistical problems

Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions, according to Russian military blogger Yuriy Kotenok. "All movements of the enemy in this area will be detected by our drones, and the enemy's troops and equipment will be attacked," he wrote on Telegram. Kotenok also claimed that there is “information” that Ukraine intends to withdraw from the Kursk region “based on the current situation.”

Ukrainian blogger Sternenko said the logistical situation was “already critical.” Another difficulty is the “poor road conditions.” As spring brings warmer weather, the ground will thaw, making the roads even muddier and more difficult to drive on. “All these circumstances are very favorable for the Russians,” he added.

Risk assessments and policy implications

Kiev fears that Russia's advances could cut off supplies to Ukrainian troops in Kursk. A maximum of 30,000 Ukrainian troops are stationed in the region, according to a major report by the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. conflict observatory. The Kursk invasion was embarrassing for Moscow and called into question Russia's ability to protect its own borders. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since repeatedly promised that his troops will regain full control of the region.

Since then, Kiev has lost about half of the territory it previously held in Kursk. Given Russia's advances, some Ukrainian bloggers have suggested that the invasion of Kursk may have exhausted its strategic importance. "I never thought I would say this. But maybe it's time to 'close up shop' towards Kursk. It's hard for our guys there," said Serhii Flesh. "In my opinion, this operation has long been justified as a diversion of enemy resources. It is now questionable as a political means of negotiation."