According to experts, Putin will not appear at the negotiating table

According to experts, Putin will not appear at the negotiating table

The United States is facing a critical shift in foreign policy, particularly with regard to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj recently emphasized in Kiev that Moscow's willingness to negotiate depends heavily on the upcoming elections in the USA. “It depends on the elections in the United States,” he explained.

Potential consequences of a change in US policy

Kamala Harris, seen as a potential presidential choice if elected, could continue the Biden administration's policies that, while supportive of Ukraine, also pose challenges such as the use of Western weapons to combat targets in Russia. In contrast, Donald Trump has hinted that he might end support for Ukraine, claiming he could end the war “in a day.” His proposals for a peace plan are very similar to Vladimir Putin's wishes.

Analysts warn of possible risks

Current American policy is at a crossroads, but this will not necessarily lead to a turning point in peace negotiations, experts argue. “What [Trump] thinks he can do is unclear at this point — but I don’t think it’s a quick process,” said Thomas Graham, a Russian foreign policy expert.

But a reduction in U.S. aid could well lead to changes on the front lines, analysts warn. Regardless of who moves into the White House, Putin will seek to exploit political tensions in the United States to his advantage. “Without Western unity and a clear demonstration that the West and Ukraine share a common vision, Putin has no reason to reconsider his actions in Ukraine,” Graham added.

The comprehensive conflict between Russia and the West

The dimension of the war goes beyond simple negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv. Chatham House staffer John Lough said: “Ukraine is just a means to an end for Putin to limit US influence in international affairs.” According to Lough, if his advisers clarify the truth to him, Trump may come to the conclusion that he is not so favorable towards Putin.

The war leads to enormous losses

The situation in Ukraine is tense. According to NATO, over 600,000 Russian soldiers are said to have been either killed or wounded. “The enemy is strengthening its troops in order to expel the Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region at any cost,” reported Oleh Shiryaev, commander of the 225th Separate Assault Battalion. In view of the high losses among Russian troops, it is clear that Russia's strategy is based on a massive increase in personnel.

Ukrainian troops urgently need support

The Ukrainian parliament has decided to extend martial law and compulsory military service by 90 days and plans to call up an additional 160,000 people. This shows that Kiev is aware of the challenge posed by Russia's ongoing military aggressions.

A possible decline in US aid could further worsen the situation for Ukraine. “We have ammunition, but as artillerymen say, there is never enough,” emphasized Vitaliy Milovidov, spokesman for the 15th National Guard Brigade fighting in Donbass. European nations are trying to boost defense production to help Ukraine, while support from the United States may be waning.

Putin's strategy of discouragement

Putin's strategy appears to be aimed at demoralizing the Ukrainian population. Russia has repeatedly attacked civilians and civilian infrastructure, which significantly worsens the living conditions of Ukrainians in winter. Despite the enormous exhaustion among the population, Ukrainians are apparently not ready to give up their position.

“If Trump just wants Ukraine to give up everything to reach a deal with Russia, then I don’t think that’s possible,” Zelensky concluded his remarks in Kiev.