Five ways of how the Russia Ukraine War could end

Five ways of how the Russia Ukraine War could end

kyiv, ukraine-a Meeting between Trump and Putin has been discussed for some time. Why could it be interesting for both sides right now?

Trump's goal: achieve a deal

The US President Donald Trump would like to use the power of his personality to achieve an agreement. He is convinced that Moscow's six-month stubbornness could be overcome by a personal meeting with the Kremlin boss. Despite the latest statements by his Russian counterpart that the Russians and Ukrainians are one and wherever a Russian soldier is, Russia is, Trump remains hoping that the Kremlin may be able to do the War to end.

Putin's strategy: Win time

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, wants to win time. He rejected an unconditional ceasefire proposal from Europe, the USA and Ukraine in May and instead offered two one-sided, short-term breaks. As part of a summer offensive, his troops make progress on the front, which could enable him to talk about a completely different starting point in the negotiations in autumn.

possible scenarios for the end of the war

If the two men actually meet, an obvious goal of the United States could be a trilateral summit with the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj to discuss the end of the war - exactly the summit that Russia rejected in Istanbul in May. Russia's goal will be likely to pull Trump back into the catch of the Moscow narrative.

Although such a summit has already been discussed and delayed in the past, it could actually take place this time. This raises the question of how the war could end. Here are five possible scenarios:

1. Putin agrees with an unconditional ceasefire

very unlikely. It is hard to imagine that Putin agrees to a ceasefire in which the front lines remain unchanged. The United States, Europe and Ukraine had already called for such a break in May. Trump retired from the sanctions and preferred low conversations in Istanbul, which, however, remained fruitless. A 30-day ceasefire this year, which was directed against the energy infrastructure, only showed limited successes.

2. Pragmatism and further conversations

The talks could be shifted to later and defeat Russian profits as soon as winter starts and the front lines are frozen militarily and actually around October. Until then, Putin could have taken the eastern cities of Pokrovsk, Kostiannivka and Kupiansk, which gives him a solid position to wait for the winter and to reoré. Russia could then fight again in 2026 or use diplomacy to consolidate these profits. In addition, Putin could bring the possibility of elections in Ukraine that were delayed by the war to question Selenskyj's legitimacy and possibly install a pro-Russian candidate.

3. Ukraine will survive the next two years

In this scenario, military help from the USA and Europe contributes to the fact that Ukraine will make as little concessions as possible on the front in the coming months, which could make Putin ask for conversations, since its military actions will be unsuccessful again. Even if Pokrovsk could fall and other East Ukrainian bastions are threatened, the Russian offensive could slow down, as before, and the Kremlin could feel the effects of sanctions and an overheated economy.

4. Disaster for Ukraine and NATO

Putin could correctly recognize the cracks in the western unit after a summit with Trump, which leads to an improvement in US Russian relationships and Ukraine urges the defensive. Europe could do everything possible to support Kiev, but without support from the USA, the balance could not tip over. Putin could make small progress in eastern Ukraine that lead to a slow withdrawal of the Ukrainian troops, and Kiev's defense forces could prove to be weak. This would lead to political crises if Selenskyj demands a broader mobilization to strengthen defense.

5. Disaster for Putin: A repetition of the Soviets in Afghanistan

Russia could continue to cost many soldier life without making significant profits, while sanctions weaken the Alliance with China and the income from India. Dissent within the Moscow elite could grow if the Kremlin-Diplomatic move out of the war. Trump could become a "Lame Duck", and after the intermediate elections, the US focus could again focus on the traditional foreign policy norms that demand an opposition to Moscow and Beijing.

None of these options is advantageous for Ukraine. Only one option leads to the actual defeat of Russia as a military power and threat to European security, and none of them can arise from a sole meeting between Trump and Putin, without the Ukraine becoming part of a later agreement.