Trump attacked the EU in retail - China is becoming more difficult

Trump attacked the EU in retail - China is becoming more difficult

President Donald Trump will not take China as hard as Europe. Two days after the EU has a framework deal that the EU trumps have been referred to by some national leaders with the team from China's President Xi Jinping in Sweden without progress. Despite the numerous Announcements on trade agreements , which was celebrated by the Trump Administration, is expected that China and the USA will remain in conversation. The lack of significant progress is a clear memory of China's strength and the consequences that can result from a confrontation with Trump. A trade deal with Beijing is essential for a comprehensive redesign of global trade.

The decisive decisions

Instead of another victory, Trump's negotiator will give him a Proposal a joint customs break that would otherwise come into force on August 12th. The president is faced with the choice: either approving more time for discussions, which would benefit Beijing, or revive a catastrophic trade war of the superpowers. This choice is hardly a choice.

Trump's success in trade

"We will simply present the facts to him, and then he will decide," said Bessent , who, together with the US trade representative Jamieson Greer, headed the US delegation in Stockholm, compared to CNBC. Nobody claims Trump is not on a chance of success. He can rightly speak of significant political victories after he framework agreement with the EU, the United Kingdom, Japan , Indonesia and the Philippines, which benefit the United States through one-sided tariffs.

European and the geopolitical landscape

Trump is convinced that other nations and trade blocks will have no other option than - as he puts it - more to pay for access to the mighty American market. He has successfully opened some previously closed markets for American manufacturers. Trump often sees Europeans as a beneficiary of American power. He has redeemed his promise to fundamentally change the transatlantic relationships by enforcing a custom of 15% to EU exports and NATO members to accept a drastic increase in defense expenses by 2035.

The challenge by China

But China stands in the way of Trump at his winning meeting and it could be that he found his master in XI. XI is not faced with any of the restrictions that have inhibited the commercial weapons of Europe. China's resistance is based on economic, sovereign and political considerations that are existential for the regime of the Communist Party.

No Chinese leader - especially not XI, who builds up his power on nationalism and the reconstruction of what Beijing demands as its lawful reputation - can give in to an American president in a trade negotiation.

risks and opportunities

The fact that China can bring its rare earths into play as a trump card against Trump is a matter of course. For decades, China had not understood American politics isolated executives, but that changed. It would not be surprising if you have already come to the conclusion that if you assert yourself against Trump, you will withdraw.

The prevailing problems in China's economy make it clear that no country would strive for a trade war or would get away with it. The authoritarian system enables XI to add more pain to its citizens than Trump could expect to his voters.

The complexity of trade agreements

The glorious expectations of the administration are premature. Trade agreements are complex and manifest themselves in thousands of pages after extensive negotiations. The preliminary and simple framework agreements published by the White House show that essential issues in the agreements with the EU and other trading partners are unsolved. Such poor agreements could easily break. Trump could also react to delays in details with tariffs, and internal conflicts in Europe make the stability of the recently achieved agreement in Scotland appear questionable.

The coming months will show how the almost safe price increases affect the economy and to what extent these future changes will influence the voters. As long as the tariffs are not drastic enough to force companies to make the expensive shift of production facilities to the United States, and Trump will not be in the White House forever, there are many uncertainties to consider. The global markets and the geopolitical landscape remain volatile.