New elections in Germany: traffic light coalition on the brink of extinction!

New elections in Germany: traffic light coalition on the brink of extinction!

On January 5, 2025, it was announced that the traffic light coalition under Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) had ended. Scholz asked a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, which was rejected by the majority of MPs. This leads to an early election of the government in Germany.

Opinion research institutes such as Forsa and Infratest dimap regularly conduct surveys on voter preferences. The Editorial Network Germany (RND) analyzes the current survey results and calculates an average of the last ten surveys at the federal level. After the 2021 federal election, the SPD was initially the strongest force in the polls, but soon had to give up the lead to the Union. The Greens also experienced a decline in votes after an initial surge in the polls. The FDP is also facing a loss of support, which poses the risk that it will not be able to re-enter parliament.

Current survey results

The AfD benefited from the losses of the traffic light parties and rose to become the second strongest party in the polls in mid-2023. However, at the beginning of 2024, the AfD lost a few percentage points. A new party, BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht), has received over 5 percent of the vote in current surveys. In these turbulent times, the Union is hoping for a mathematical majority with the SPD or the Greens for coalition negotiations. However, the Union has ruled out an alliance with the AfD, and a coalition against the Union is currently considered unlikely. Forecasts suggest that the Union in the West and the AfD in the East have a good chance of winning elections, based on polls, regional results and the candidates fielded.

Election polls reflect the current political mood, such as dawum.de reported, but they are not binding forecasts for the actual election result. The statistical error usually ranges between 1 and 3 percentage points, depending on the respective survey value. At the last federal election on September 26, 2021, the average deviation of all institutions was 1.03 percentage points, while the maximum deviation was 3.2 percentage points. These statistics are crucial for interpreting the surveys and their significance for the upcoming electoral system in Germany.

– Submitted by West-East media