Europe's closest ally sleeps with the greatest enemy
Europe's closest ally sleeps with the greatest enemy
London - Europe's leaders and officials were surprised by a sudden decline in American support for Ukraine last week. Many are wondering why US President Donald trump has so vehemently turned against Ukrainian President Vladimir Selenskyj and the aggressive false news, which can usually be heard from the Kremlin.
uncertain future for Ukraine
The European managers were not involved in the Russia USA discussions this week. You are not sure when the USA is a Peace proposal to Kiev or whether you actually make your threats to withdraw from the conflict. What will happen next remains uncertain.
"The way this was transmitted-hit in a few days-was a real shock for the continent," said Armida van Rij, an experienced research fellowship and head of the European program in the London Think Tank Chatham House.
politicians in the mourning process
European politicians work through their grief. A To sketch reality.
But the most important capitals seem disoriented with their goals. Suggestions for a peace force, increased defense spending and new military aid were presented, but never in harmony. Europe's shattered intentions formed one of the two sides of an impressive split screen this week; On the other hand, the United States and Russia, which suddenly harmonize with each other and ukrainian" Territories wiped from the negotiating table.
the need for a change of management
A new guide could help, say some experts: a figure that can collect Europe behind a universal intention and build a bridge between Kiev and Washington. The most striking candidates are Great Britain Keir Strander and France's Emmanuel Macron, who will both visit Washington next week - travel that have become significant.
But Europe is not known for its unity in defense, and every important leader has elective or economic challenges at home. In addition, there is a delicate question as to when and how strongly against Trump should be taken; Governments know that a disruption of this relationship could strengthen Moscow handball.
tensions in the European defense approach
Europe had expected that Trump would show less interest in the struggle of Ukraine for sovereignty than the previous bid administration, but was not prepared for such a sudden, clear and bitter separation.
The sight of an incumbent US president who attributes the invasion of a adversary to his besieged ally was shaken and caused uniform convictions from European leaders. Europe has suffered a shock rigid on an emotional and practical level.
But this shouldn't have been surprising. For months Trump and his closest circle had speculated and held back, which affects the beginning and the hypothetical end of the war in Ukraine and signaled a lack of interest in Kiev sovereignty, which indicated an upcoming drastic change of direction in politics.
the need for a European plan
from the moment when Trump was chosen, the European heads of government should have gathered to clarify what the European plan could look like. But this did not happen, and real urgency only emerged now.
There are two future scenarios: one with a peace treaty and one without. Both are expected to require European leadership; Trump's administration has made it clear that her priorities are in the Indo-Pacific and its own limits.
The British Prime Minister Strauber has now taken the first important step to gather the European governments behind a common goal by announcing this week a significant change in politics: Great Britain would be ready to station troops on site to secure an agreed peace in Ukraine.
Western officials said on Wednesday that such an argument would probably include fewer than 30,000 soldiers and would concentrate on “security” and protect critical Ukrainian infrastructures and build trust in the state.
challenges in front of the group
However, it is unclear what would happen if NATO soldiers are attacked by Russians on Ukrainian non-Nato floor. Strandmer, who has a leaves the army that has been gone since the wars and Afghanistan has also been reduced by Europe. "The British army suffers from the cumulative effects of 40 years of decline," said Drummond.A member of the British Parliament, which the government has pushed to go beyond the planned increase in military spending, which is 2.3 % of GDP, but is supposed to rise to 2.5 % in the coming years: "My impression is that we can handle it, but we urgently need investments to be prepared for the modern battlefield."
conflicts in defense policy
The idea of stationing soldiers on site is not popular everywhere. Poland, which has the largest NATO army in Europe and plays an important role in Ukraine, is reserved and feared that this could make your own limits more vulnerable.
If an informal, smaller European management group should form, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is expected to be expected. He could provide uncomfortable truths about defense spending on larger nations such as Great Britain, France and Germany.
punishment of German defense spending
Germany is expected to have a particularly harsh judgment. An unhappily time -scheduled election on Sunday could lead to weeks -long negotiations on the next government. The expected Chancellor Friedrich Merz used the Munich security conference last week to present a Hawkish position on Ukraine.
German military spending, however, is only 1.5%; Merz explains that these have to be increased, but fixed commitments . The war of Russia has already weakened Germany's voice in Europe - Berlin has developed closer economic relations with Moscow for decades, despite Poland's protests - and Merz will have difficulties in recapturing them.
urgency of a European engagement
Regardless of the internal challenges, there is the possibility that a peace treaty agreed by the United States and Russia is rejected by Selenskyj or that Putin does not accept peace guards. In such a case, the support of Europe would be essential if Ukraine is to continue its difficult war without a fixed end date.
That means more than just words; Europe also has to close a gap in military support.
Western officials said this week that Kiev probably received enough military equipment to get by until summer. "Biden sent a lot of material before taking office. It is still possible to go into material," said an official. But the loss of American contributions would be a difficult blow: the official said there was a "difference in quality" between American deliveries and those of Europe.
Sorting the individual parts after the breakdown of a decades of security with America would be a painful and complicated task. But Europe recognized this week that it may be necessary.
"The USA withdraw from 70 years of cooperation," said another British legislator this week. "It remains an important pillar of NATO, and I hope that this will stay that way in the long term; but it must be clear to its opponents and allies."