Trump's Gaza-Plan harbors risks for Arabic allies

Trump's Gaza-Plan harbors risks for Arabic allies

The outbreak of reactions to the announcement by US President Donald Trump to strive for a "takeover" of Gaza has aroused minds in many ways. An insider from the Middle East described this idea as "crazy". But why would someone who is very familiar with Trump's tactics and the nuances of Middle East diplomacy.

The consequences of Trump's politics

simply expressed, Trump's open direction change in relation to Gaza is considered a disadvantage for everyone involved - neither for themselves, nor for the Palestinians, and not even for Trump. In the worst case, Trump's radical departure of decades of US foreign policy, which should support the establishment of a Palestinian state, including Gaza, should support the fear of many in the Middle East. This concern is that after the group's attack on October 7, 2023, the war against Hamas could be an excuse to permanently drive out the 2.1 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

The reaction of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, as the leading diplomatic center of the region and spiritual center for the 1.8 billion Muslims worldwide, reacted quickly to Trump's announcement. In an official declaration by the Foreign Ministry, it was emphasized that Saudi Arabia's position to create a Palestinian state was firm and unshakable. Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) "clearly and clearly" confirmed this attitude.

The conflicts of MBS

To understand this situation, you have to try to think like MBS. He is the ultimate center of power in his country and does not tolerate any political dissent. Nevertheless, Hamas, who does not exist in Saudi Arabia, represents an existential threat to him. The group embodies political Islam, an atrocities for every autocratic Muslim, since it, it would have the opportunity to plunge MBS and his royal colleagues in the Gulf States in the shortest possible time. Therefore he has a great interest in the destruction of Hamas.

economic interests and political pressure

On the other hand, the brutal war of Israel in Gaza has re-lived up the previously sleeping pro-Palestinian sentiments in the Saudi population. A prudent MBS is aware that it would lead to public displeasure if people are sold in the Gaza Strip. He strives for peace in the Middle East, especially after normalizing relationships with Israel, as this benefits both his bank balance sheet and promotes the satisfaction of its citizens.

The dilemmata of Jordan and Egypt

The countries mentioned by Trump are under massive pressure. Both states are dependent on US aids to remain existent. In the wars of Israel from 1948 and 1967, they experienced an enormous immigration of Gazans, and both countries fear that a further massive absorption of refugees could endanger their stability. Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi emphasizes that a displacement of the Gazans "can never be tolerated or allowed, due to their effects on the national security of Egypt".

The geopolitical location

The geopolitical situation remains tense, because Egypt is a regional key player whose stability is crucial for the interests of the USA and Europe. An instability in Jordan could lead to a power vacuum that could strengthen Iran and other radical actors on Israel's border. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently emphasized that his fight against Hamas had to be successful, as this could also endanger the ability of all democracies in the fight against terrorism.

Trump's exchange of blows with Netanyahu

Trump's current rhetoric seems to be a retina -flogging against the lines that Netanyahu pulled before. While this recently designed a vision for Gaza to transform the area into a massive free trade zone, Trump's rapprochement with a violent displacement could make the unspeakable about the pressure situation - a procedure that could be seen in the international community as a war crime.