Israel's Challenge: Recognize Disengagement While Hezbollah Is Weakened

Israel's Challenge: Recognize Disengagement While Hezbollah Is Weakened

The word “limited” will play a crucial role in the coming weeks.

Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon

Israel has its first Ground offensive in southern Lebanon described as “limited”. However, key ally the Biden administration has already indicated that the initial measures, which appear small, may get out of hand could.

Complexity of military decisions

The Israeli military leadership and prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu enormous efficiency and discipline are required to recognize when it is time to end the offensive. Militaries are rarely inclined to retreat, especially during large-scale operations. If the offensive goes easily, it could encourage the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to push further, sensing a weakened enemy against which rapid progress can be made. If difficulties arise, the IDF can argue that the mission is now even more urgent and must continue.

The challenges in Lebanon

But remarkably, after two weeks of technical sophistication and targeted, calculated attacks on Hezbollah - starting with the simultaneous explosion of communication systems and ending with the Killing of the militia leader, Hassan Nasrallah – shifting the balance of power. The Israeli army could determine that Hezbollah, their leadership switched off is so weakened that it is easier than expected to eliminate the remnants of its ground forces after months of air strikes. But southern Lebanon has always been a home advantage for the Iranian-backed group. Their tunnel system provides the Israeli forces with an endless labyrinth. Knowing the right time to stop will be crucial to preventing Israel from getting stuck in a quagmire. Almost every modern war that drags on for years began with the assumption that it would be over in a few weeks.

The role of the international community

Although Israel's operations in recent weeks have been brutal, they have demonstrated discipline and superior intelligence. We are now entering a new phase of this conflict in which key decisions must be made by an Israeli prime minister who has proven to be maximalist in his military moves and who is also dependent on a prolonged conflict to secure his position of power. It will require an exceptionally rapid IDF defeat of Hezbollah for Netanyahu to withdraw his troops within days, without months of uncertainty as to how this conflict will end.

Consequences for the region

Is Israel's Lebanon Operation Leading to a Major War with Iran? On Tuesday, the US government warned of one possible retaliatory attack from Iran to Israel, but this does not necessarily result in guaranteed damage, especially after interceptions in April that prevented many similar missiles. So far, Iran has clearly demonstrated that it has neither the resources nor the willingness to initiate a broader regional response to Israel.

Risks to civilians

Nevertheless, this poses an increased risk to civilians in Lebanon and jeopardizes any form of long-term peace or at least sustainable calm in the region. The less likely a major conflict is, the less influence the United States and Europe have over the Netanyahu administration. Time and time again, the West has managed to bring the region back from the abyss, which they have described as dangerously close. But now all the red lines in northern Israel have literally seen the march of troops, and it is unclear whether Iran is capable of carrying out effective interventions at the moment, apart from the rocket attacks it has attempted in the past, but without significant success.

The uncertainty of the future

While the arc of retaliation is long, Iran could retaliate in ways that are not yet immediate but extremely destabilizing, such as through its advanced nuclear program. However, Iran currently appears unable to deter Israel in any way.

The political situation in the USA

A worrying month begins, marred by political paralysis in the US, where the idea that the outgoing Biden administration could tame Israel seems somewhat fanciful. It appears that the White House is concerned about major escalations like this Assassination of Nasrallah last week, will be informed in real time. If US Vice President Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win the election, both White Houses could decide to scale back support for Israel. Yet neither candidate wants to give the other the opportunity to portray them as weak in protecting Israel.

Strategic considerations for Israel

Netanyahu's full intentions remain unclear. The closure of towns in the Metula area in northern Israel and the shelling of the border have led to speculation that the IDF may want to launch a lightning raid toward the Lebanese city of Tire to cut off all Hezbollah troops in the south of the country. While this may seem tempting strategically on a map, it could prove to be a huge challenge with a lot of unfavorable geography.

Conclusion: A dangerous balancing act

Israel's current situation is typical of the extraordinary risks in which the country now finds itself. With a maximalist leader who has dismissed all diplomatic efforts, Israel must now limit the scope of its operations while permanently redefining the security threat in the north. It must find a way to inflict significant damage on the enemy, who has never been so weakened, while avoiding getting caught in a trap.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has approved measures over the past two weeks that appear tactically astute, even if they appear to ignore the well-being of civilians. These measures fit into the picture of last year. The Gaza ulcer – a conflict with no apparent end or idea for a solution to Palestinian coexistence and political inclusion – shows how aggressive the current war cabinet can be when faced with major strategic decisions. For Israel's military efforts to last weeks rather than months, they will require extraordinary and rare successes, discipline and political foresight.