One year after October 7th: The largest conflict in the Middle East in 50 years

One year after October 7th: The largest conflict in the Middle East in 50 years

It's almost impossible to adapt to life in Israel to commemorate the brutal attacks by Hamas on October 7th, which left more than 1,200 people dead and over 250 people kidnapped a year ago. This time has irrevocably disappeared, and not just because of the more than 100 hostages who are still in captivity.

The geopolitical changes after October 7th

Similar changes can also be observed beyond Israel's borders. Israel, its enemies and allies are all witnessing a shift in the region's diplomatic and political architecture that could dwarf the upheavals of the Arab-Israeli conflict half a century ago. The changes since October 7th are both inevitable and, in their current chaotic form, avoidable. Civilian casualties are rising while diplomacy could have potentially saved lives.

The path to peace and stability seemed within reach

A year ago, the region's political landscape appeared to be at a turning point. Spurred on by US stimulus, Saudi Arabia and Israel appeared closer than ever to a historic normalization of their relations. Diplomacy and the skills necessary to manage such a complex Agreement to close became more important. But the prospect of peace and prosperity shattered when Hamas stormed through the Gaza border fences that Saturday morning.

The impact of the attacks on Israel

Although Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar Perhaps calculated to torpedo normalization and put the Palestinian cause above regional peace priorities, he has succeeded, at least in the short term. I still remember the smell of rotting flesh as we entered Kfar Aza, about 800 meters from Gaza. It was October 10th, and Major General Itai Veruv of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) led the first international press access to show the devastation of Hamas' attacks.

Changes in Israel's self-image

Many Israelis realized for the first time that their state was no longer the safe haven for Jews they had always believed. The idea that no matter what prejudice and persecution they face around the world, they can find refuge in Israel has been shattered. What began as a frantic effort to secure the Gaza border soon turned into a vendetta against the attackers and those close to them.

Escalation and its challenges

Israelis' vulnerability has remained, while national anger has been transformed into a determined logic of regional deterrence, such as that of Israel's right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is embodied. He is linking his political survival to spectacular new tactics that violate the old rules that previously prevented escalation in the region. It is called “escalation to de-escalation,” but on the anniversary of the attacks on October 7, 2024, there is a lack of a de-escalation concept and a plan for what will happen afterwards.

International relations under pressure

The Jewish state's relations with the US government under President Joe Biden, its key ally, are reaching a historic low. Authorities in Gaza say nearly 42,000 Palestinians have been killed, many by Israeli-owned U.S. bombs and bullets. The IDF continues to carry out killings and arrests of Palestinians, some of them US citizens, in the occupied area West Bank, which has become untenable for many of Israel's European allies, who, after a year of waiting, are beginning to restrict arms shipments.

The conflict is expanding

However, the political, religious and existential tensions within Israel are pressuring little noticeable progress on the government's efforts to curb its survival instincts. Iran's regional ally and biggest proxy, Lebanon's Hezbollah - which represents a dark chapter in Lebanon's post-war democracy - stepped up cross-border missile attacks the day after October 7. In recent weeks it has lost many of its leaders to Israeli airstrikes, leaving it facing a... Israel's third ground offensive in Lebanon within half a century.

The role of Iran

The attacks by Hamas on October 7th, whether they are directly related Iran were coordinated or not, certainly took place with its благословление. The Iranian theocracy has been the Palestinian terror group's biggest supporter for decades, pouring in money, military material and know-how. Iran's goal is to destroy Israel and drive the United States out of the region. It uses pro-Palestinian rhetoric to rile up tempers on the “Arab street” – which is overwhelmingly Sunni and views Iran, a Shiite theocracy, as unreliable at best and an adversary at worst.

A complex conflict

The past year has revealed the dimensions of these plans and the integration of Shiite communities to create pro-Iranian militias. The Houthis in Yemen are no longer just anti-Saudi henchmen of the Shiite clerics in Tehran, but are using their ballistic missiles and drones equipped with Iranian weapons against Tel Aviv. Iran, supported by the Houthis, has also begun blocking commercial shipping in the Red Sea to block to support the Gazans. Tehran's Shiite proxies in Iraq have responded to the call and expanded drone strikes on Israel.

Uncertainties in the region

It is a multi-pronged conflict that is escalating faster than was thought possible a year ago. At that time, missile warnings were not part of everyday life in central Israel. Today, parents in their shelters in Tel Aviv scan their cell phones for messages from their children fighting on the front lines, just as they once did. Each generation here is trained to fight in the service of the nation, although opinions differ as to how long that fight should be continued before moving on to diplomacy. The longer the escalation lasts, the less control the country and its prime minister have over the outcome.

Future outlook

Potential regional partners like Saudi Arabia are now demanding ever higher diplomatic tickets for Netanyahu. The normalization between Israel and the most influential Gulf state that seemed so close before October 7 is currently unattainable because Netanyahu is too toxic a partner for such an agreement. It was a deal that would have given Biden a legacy to be proud of; for Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the legitimacy and security he seeks; and for Netanyahu, an inoculation against millennia of antipathy.

Saudi Arabia's price is now an "irreversible path" to a Palestinian state, which is an absolute nonsense for Netanyahu and his extremely nationalist cabinet and will be rejected even more throughout society than before after October 7th. Days before the anniversary, Anwar Gargash, a veteran UAE diplomat, predicted the direction of the influential Gulf state: “The era of militias with sectarian and regional dimensions has cost the Arabs dearly.” The goal is an end to Iranian proxy power games and a path to a Palestinian state. The question is how to get from here to there, especially with the sword hovering over the diplomat. In the absence of successful peace talks, uncertainty has become the new certainty.