Report: Is China's Military Really Ready for War?

Report: Is China's Military Really Ready for War?

Seoul, South Korea - China is not ready for war, according to a controversial report from a US think tank. The main motivation for the ruling Communist Party's comprehensive military modernization drive is to maintain its power, not to fight a foreign enemy.

China's military modernization under Xi Jinping

Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, Beijing has undertaken considerable military build-up and expansion. The People's Liberation Army (PLA), previously not among the strongest militaries in Asia, has begun to rival or even surpass U.S. forces in some categories, analysts estimate.

PLA challenges in an emergency

Simulations by U.S. defense experts have repeatedly shown that the U.S. - widely viewed as the world's strongest armed forces - could have difficulty defeating the PLA in a battle near Chinese shores, particularly with regard to the democratic island of Taiwan, which is claimed by Beijing.

Political considerations hinder military readiness

A document released last month by the Washington-based RAND Corporation said the political considerations - particularly the Communist Party's desire for control over both military personnel and Chinese society - could affect the PLA in combat, especially against a peer adversary such as the United States. Timothy Heath, a longtime China expert at RAND, explained in the report that "the PLA is fundamentally focused on maintaining Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule rather than preparing for war."

The influence of political loyalty on military strategy

Heath pointed out that the PLA spends up to 40% of training time on political topics, raising questions about how prepared the troops are for modern warfare. Furthermore, PLA units are led not only by commanders but also by political commissars whose focus is on party loyalty rather than combat effectiveness.

The perspective on the war between the USA and China

The possibility of a conventional war between the U.S. and China is "a remote possibility," he added, and Pentagon planners should focus on a variety of threats from China that go beyond missiles and bombs. Other experts, however, doubt his conclusions and emphasize that Xi has clearly defined his primary military goal: to bring Taiwan under Beijing's control, if necessary by force.

China's rapid military progress

China has made rapid and undeniable progress in its military since introducing sweeping reforms a decade ago. The intensive shipbuilding program in recent years has created the world's largest navy, capable of operating further than ever from Chinese shores, including the first overseas naval base in Djibouti.

Questions about the effectiveness of the new arsenal

However, Heath questioned whether Beijing's new arsenal would be effective in war. “History has shown time and time again that militaries sometimes fail to effectively use their advanced armor in combat,” his report said. Critics of his analysis refuse to recognize the same weaknesses in the PLA.

The human factor in the military

The PLA has made great strides in both the number and quality of weapons it can field. But experts warn that building state-of-the-art warships is not the same as manning them. It is a challenge to train young soldiers who can handle complex tasks on board modern ordnance.

Assessing China's Military Readiness

When analysts talk about China's military readiness, the focus quickly turns to Taiwan. US intelligence agencies estimate that Xi wants the PLA ready to invade the island by 2027 if necessary. However, Heath argues that although the Chinese leader has set this goal, no consistent approach to preparing the Chinese public for an emergency is apparent.

Final Thoughts on Military Modernization

The modernization of the Chinese military is not aimed at conquering Taiwan militarily, but rather at supporting the PLA more effectively in its long-term mission to maintain CCP rule. New warships and stealth fighters impress the public and thus make it easier to control society, Heath concluded.