Stock market experts reveal: Trump's influence on the markets in 2025!

Stock market experts reveal: Trump's influence on the markets in 2025!

On May 19, 2025, Bawag and easybank's Investment Day 2025 took place in Vienna, where around 800 customers were present. In addition to the personal participants, many other viewers followed the event via live stream. The program included a variety of lectures, discussions and event stands at which financial experts from renowned partner companies such as BNP Paribas, Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, Amundi, DWS Group X-Trackers, J.P. Morgan, Candriam and DJE Kapital AG gave exciting insights into current stock market events.

The event was moderated by Ingrid Spanier and included, among other things, a keynote speech by Wall Street expert Markus Koch entitled “The Trump Show 2.0 – Gamechanger or Endgame?” Koch described stock market events in 2025 as unpredictable, but said that Trump's upcoming re-election would make them more predictable. He pointed out that a recession in the USA could be averted if solutions to the customs dispute were found. He also predicted that Trump would seek to stabilize the stock market, which would be crucial for the midterm elections.

Discussion about the markets

A central theme of the event was the discussion about the impact of Trump's second term in office on the financial markets. In addition to Markus Koch, Martin Kocher, Enver Siručić and Ulrich Kaffarnik also took part in this discussion. The focus of their exchange was on concrete impulses for investors that result from the various market conditions and the political climate.

In addition, video interviews with other industry experts and customers from Bawag and easybank were carried out during the event in order to deepen the understanding of the current market situation.

Outlook on the monetary policy framework

Another important aspect that has shaped the investment environment in recent years has been inflation and interest rates. Central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve, are increasingly keeping investors busy. Starting in 2025, major central banks are expected to begin cutting interest rates after previously raising rates sharply. For example: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged for 18 months before beginning rate cuts in September 2024.

David Knee, Deputy CIO Fixed Income, questioned the view that the Fed's "higher for longer" policy could continue. Despite the 5% interest rate hike in the US, developed economies are showing resilience. Investors are convinced that the interest rate decisions successfully enabled a “soft landing” of the economy without causing a major economic slowdown. However, uncertainty remains regarding the pace and extent of further rate cuts.

The Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates next year to combat deflation. David Knee recommends that bond investors be cautious and consider defensive positioning, as absolute yields on bonds are considered attractive at both short and long maturities. This could provide a counterbalance to possible equity exposures if the macroeconomic situation deteriorates.

In summary, it can be seen that developments on the financial markets are characterized by complex interactions between political decisions and monetary policy measures. Both the expertise of the industry experts presented and the current economic conditions offer investors valuable insight into possible strategies and their adaptation to volatile markets. For more detailed information on the trends and analyses, please refer to the reporting from leadersnet and the [Investment Perspectives from M&G].