Ukrainian attacks: Pro-Kremlin experts stoke nuclear fears

Ukrainian attacks: Pro-Kremlin experts stoke nuclear fears

CNN – How will Moscow react to the surprise Ukrainian crisis? Drone attacks respond to his strategic aircraft? So far, the Kremlin has not issued a clear statement and has only said it will wait for the results of a formal investigation. These attacks hit air bases thousands of kilometers away Ukrainian border are removed.

Reactions in the Russian media

However, the anger in the Russian media is clearly noticeable. Pro-Kremlin commentators and bloggers are loudly calling for retaliation, even nuclear response. “This is not just a pretext, but a reason to launch nuclear attacks on Ukraine,” said the well-known bloggers of the “Two Majors” channel with over a million subscribers. “After the mushroom cloud, you can think about who lied and made mistakes,” they added, referring to the Kremlin’s inevitable search for scapegoats for the fiasco.

Doubt and caution

A prominent Russian political analyst, Sergei Markov, called for caution, warning in a social media post that the use of nuclear weapons “would lead to real political isolation.” Nevertheless, popular blogger Alexander Kots demanded that Russia “strike with all its might, regardless of the consequences.”

It is well known that Russian hardliners regularly call for the nuclear annihilation of Ukraine and issue looming but ultimately empty Armageddon threats against Western allies. Given these new serious attacks, it is hardly surprising that they are becoming louder again.

The alarming situation

Nevertheless, it would be negligent to dismiss all Russian threats as mere propaganda. There are some worrying reasons to take the potential threat of a devastating Russian retaliation seriously.

First, several Russian commentators have pointed out that Ukraine's destruction of a significant number of Russian strategic nuclear bombers could be viewed as a violation of Moscow's legal threshold for nuclear attacks. The Kremlin's recently updated nuclear doctrine stipulates that any attack on "critically important" military infrastructure that "disrupts response actions of nuclear forces" could trigger a nuclear counterstrike.

The possibility of a nuclear attack

“The Ukrainian deployment was a reason for a nuclear attack,” declared polarizing Russian state television host Vladmir Solovyov, calling for attacks on the Ukrainian presidential office in Kiev and beyond. Fortunately, regardless of the legal situation, the hurdle for a Russian nuclear attack remains high and such a strike would likely be dismissed in Kremlin circles as a disproportionate overreaction.

Such an attack would poison relations with key trading partners such as China and India and trigger potential military action against Russian forces. The inevitable mass casualties would provoke global contempt and further isolate Russia internationally.

The pressure on Moscow is growing

The problem, however, is that the Kremlin could now face overwhelming pressure to restore deterrence. It's not just the recent Ukrainian drone strikes that penetrated deep into Russian territory and humiliated Moscow. Shortly thereafter, Ukraine led another bold attack on the strategic Crimean Bridge - the third time that this important transport route was hit. In addition, the capture of the Kursk region in western Russia by Ukrainian forces last year resulted in another major embarrassment for the Kremlin, which is struggling to liberate its own country. Meanwhile, weekly, if not daily, drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and airports continue to cause widespread disruption far from the front lines.

What's next?

At the same time, Ukraine's allies have gradually lifted restrictions on the use of Western weapons against Russia, further challenging what Moscow once viewed as red lines. Hardly anyone doubts that the Kremlin is pushing to respond decisively, but how?

A former Russian minister told CNN that Moscow's most likely response would be "barbaric" conventional missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, like those the people of Ukraine have been suffering for years. "There is no other way, because Russia does not have the capacity for a massive military offensive. It does not have enough personnel for it," said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister who now lives outside Russia.

I don't think the talks about the possible use of nuclear weapons and the like are realistic. But once again, Putin has shown many times that he resorts to barbarism and revenge.

In other words, it is very unlikely, but the nuclear option cannot be completely ruled out. This Ukraine conflict has already taken numerous unexpected turns, most notably the all-out Russian invasion in 2022. And while Ukraine and its supporters rejoice in the impressive successes of recent military operations, poking a humiliated and wounded Russian bear could have dangerous and frightening consequences.