USA could have deal with Russia and Ukraine, but the Kremlin remains tricky

USA could have deal with Russia and Ukraine, but the Kremlin remains tricky

It is not the full 30-day ceasefire that US President Donald Trump asked-on the contrary. Nevertheless, it is a deal with both Russia and Ukraine , which is therefore a rare progress.

restrictions for military actions in the Black Sea

The White House announced that both the Ukraine and Russia are limited have agreed that military actions in the Black Sea limit - but under several conditions.

safe passage for trade

The central point of the agreement is intended to secure the safe passage for trading and stopping military attacks in the Black Sea. Russia and Ukraine would again receive unrestricted access to important ports that are decisive for the export of grain and other agricultural products.

Ukrainian concerns

The Ukraine, which is a devastatingly successful dronekampagne Has led the black -sea fleet, made it clear that every return movement of Russian ships is regarded by them as a violation of the agreement.

measures against attacks on energy systems

Another part of the agreement includes the development of measures by the United States and Russia to stop attacks on energy systems in Russia and Ukraine for a period of 30 days - another, if of a partial progress.

challenges with the Kremlin

But there is always a catch with the Kremlin. After the announcement of the agreement, the Kremlin announced that it was only implemented after a series of sanctions that affect its financial institutions in agricultural trade.

sanctions and access to the Swift system

This would mean lifting the sanctions through the back door. This probably also includes a partial restoration of Russia's access to the US-controlled Swift-payment system since its Russia large -scale invasion of Ukraine is excluded in 2022.

The reality of the negotiations

The Trump administration has already made amazing concessions to the Kremlin by taking the NATO membership of Ukraine off the table and forced Kiev to accept territorial losses in this but unsuccessful attempt to make peace in Ukraine.

risk of further surrender

The cancellation of Sanctions to punish and currently real economic Cause pain without even receiving a short -term ceasefire obligation from the Kremlin, could act like further surrender to Putin. This is undoubtedly one of Putin's main goals.

Trump's ambitions and the reality of the war

Trump, who emphasizes that he is determined to end bloodshed in Ukraine, is faced with the complex reality of only pausing this brutal war for a short time, which is exploited by Putin's hard and experienced negotiators.

The expectations of the negotiations

It should be remembered that Trump broken repeatedly that he could end the conflict within just 24 hours, but later revised his time frame to a more realistic, yet very ambitious variant.

The narrow line of an actual peace process

Now the bar for success seems to be a short stop of the killing. And as the last agreement clearly shows, even this remains difficult to grasp. The crucial question, however, is whether this creeping ceasefire is the beginning of a real peace process, which flows into an actual termination of hostility and possibly in a permanent peace in Ukraine.

The risk of incorrect dawn

or will it turn out to be a further wrong dawn, an agreement that leads to nothing or, as many Ukrainians fear, possibly to a gradual surrender to Moscow?

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