Iran's top guide faces his greatest challenge

Iran's top guide faces his greatest challenge

For almost four decades, the Iranian top leader Ayatollah"> Ayatollah " Ali Khamenei internal unrest, economic crises and wars mastered. But the unprecedented attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran represent his greatest challenge. Khamenis Next decisions will have far -reaching consequences for Iran and the rest of the Middle East. In view of the costs of the attack, only a few options remain. This is a huge exam for an 86-year-old with a declining health and without a appointed successor.

damage to Khameneis regime

The Extent of the damage, which Khameneis regime was added, but they hit the heart of its power. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards, an important military force that maintains the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, suffered the loss of numerous experienced commanders. Iran's nuclear situations in which uranium was enriched at an almost weapon-capable level, badly damaged , and central Progressive progression of the program were murdered.

khamenis weakened power base

Khameneis regional weapons proxies were already significantly weakened by Israeli attacks, and billions that were invested in the nuclear program of his regime were lost in just 12 days - another economic wound at a time when sanctions and high inflation prevailed. The Israeli attacks were so profound that Khamenei gave his speeches from an unknown place during the conflict, which indicates continuing concern about his safety. He was not among the hundreds of thousands that took part in nationwide funerals for the murdered military commanders and nuclear scientists.

The pressure increases

It took several days after the ceasefire came into force until the top guide brought a defiant video message to the Iranian people. "This president (Donald Trump) revealed this truth - he made it clear that the Americans will only be satisfied with the total surrender of Iran, and nothing less," said Khamenei. As expected, he also explained the victory over Israel and the USA - a message that triggered a direct answer from Trump.

changing options

once a maneuvering guide who used political and economic maneuvers to ensure the survival of his regime, the aging Khamenei now rules an eroding and rigid state. With an uncertain successor, the status of his nuclear program and the strength of his proxy groups, he faces a critical choice: to rebuild the same regime or to open up in a way that could endanger its power.

a new strategy for Iran?

In the face of unprecedented prints and dwindling options, Khamenei, who previously issued a FATWA to reject the development of nuclear weapons, could be considered to use Iran's nuclear program as the best protection. Last week, the parliament signaled its intention to stop working with the United Nations nuclear supervisory authority. The development of an atomic bomb would be a significant change of course in Iran's public attitude - while Israel explains the offensive goals to prevent Iran from developing an atomic bomb, Tehran has always been on the peaceful nature of its program.

relationships with Arab neighbors

A possibility for Khamenei would be to use the rare unit in Iran against the attacks of Israel's attacks by considering further reforms. In his speech, he reflected this moment as one of the collective strength. "Through God's grace, a nation of almost 90 million was a unit - united in voice and goal - shoulder to shoulder, without any divisions in demands or intentions," he said.

The way to the future

khamenis distrust of the West, increasingly by Trump's one -sided cancellation of a nuclear contract in his first term and the unprecedented attacks of Israel this month - which was started just two days before a new round of negotiations between an Iranian delegation and the USA - behind uncertainty on how to approach upcoming negotiations. While the Trump administration tries to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table, Khameneis image of adamant resilience could ultimately lead to a solution that ensures the survival of the Islamic Republic he inherited.