Ukraine's history: overview of parallels and pitfalls

Ukraine's history: overview of parallels and pitfalls

The story is a battlefield for Ukraine. Months before Russian President Vladimir Putin began his comprehensive invasion, he published a thoughtful article with 5,000 words that propagated the destruction of the country. In his speech To initiate the Russian attack, he led a number of historical complaints to the West. Months after the start of the war, he presented himself as the successor to the modern tsar Peter.

Historical parallels in times of crisis

The teachings of history get Ukraine again. While US President Donald Trump a negotiated termination Strive for the war, politicians and experts are looking for suitable analogies to explain the precarious situation of Ukraine and to evaluate the risks in a diplomatic process.

Parallels are always inaccurate, but the current moment reflects three important chapters of the diplomatic history of the 20th century: Munich 1938, Jalta 1945 and Budapest 1994.

The Munich Agreement

The Munich Agreement - the contract that the Sudetenland was drawn to Adolf Hitler's Germany in order to avert a war in Europe - is considered the classic example of historical analogies.

Over the years it became a synonym for appeasement: the submission of the Sudetenland encouraged Hitler and paved the way to a world war. Critics of Trump compare the willingness of the President to make Putin one to one in Alaska - and his proposal that Ukraine may have to accept territories - with the error of Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, To take Hitler's words literally.

"Trump's magical thinking threatens to become a slow Munich agreement - and to repeat the mistake of the appeasement," the democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal wrote to X. "Pampering a blooddly murderer with territories and promises of good behavior has not brought peace in our time.

But there is also a specific military aspect in the Munich comparison. The deal made it possible for the Nazis to avoid an extensive network of fastenings, which made Czechoslovakia practically defenseless. Military analysts find that if Russia is allowed to occupy the remaining Donetsk region of Ukraine as part of a peace agreement, Putin's troops may take control of fortress cities such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which form a decisive part of the Kiev defense ring.

The Jalta conference

Another historical example is that Jalta conference from 1945, a meeting between US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Prime Minister Winston Churchill and the Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, who set the conditions for the post-war order in Europe.

Originally regarded as a triumph of diplomacy in times of war, the legacy of Jalta is now pessimistic, especially in Eastern European countries, since it is considered the meeting that ultimately left behind the Iron Curtain and delivered millions of people to the communist regime.

Some observers see Trump's urging for a potential large deal with Putin also the risk of betraying Kiev, especially if possible results are negotiated across the heads of the Ukrainians.

In a post on X before the Trump Putin meeting in Alaska, the former US ambassador in Russia, Michael McFaul wrote: "The Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska must not become Jalta 2.0. I hope that President Trump, @secrubio, and her team work hard to make this summit meaningful and not to let the surrender at a moment."

It is not surprising that Putin is a fan of great power deal. In a speech at the UN General Meeting 2015-on the eve of the military intervention in Russia in Syria-Putin spoke appreciatively about Jalta and said that the security architecture negotiated there had helped mankind to survive stormy and sometimes dramatic events of the past seven decades. She saved the world from large-scale upheavals. ”

The historian Sergey Radchenko commented in a detailed discussion about the Jalta comparison and noted that "Jalta had no realistic alternatives because the Soviets were already overrun in February 1945. FDR was unable to drive them out of it. The only thing he could do was to extract hollow promises of elections from Stalin."

But the Jalta option is not the only diplomatic way that is available today, Radchenko added because the United States needed Russia for nothing and are able to support Kiev in restricting Moscow ambitions. "Far from conquering Eastern Europe, Russia cannot even conquer the Donbass," he wrote. "In short: While Jalta had no sustainable alternatives, Jalta 2.0 has a very sustainable alternative that would have given the Trump administration a significant advantage in negotiations with Russia."

The Budapest memorandum

While European allies try to To find security guarantees for Ukraine, put the memories of the 1994 Budapest memorandum in the foreground - which brought the new independent Ukraine to give up the nuclear weapons stationed on its territory after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

This piece of paper signed by Russia contained a promise to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. These promise did not protect Ukraine from the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and the full invasion in 2022.

In an interview with CNN, the former Ukrainian president had Petro Poroshenko Three that the security guarantees outlined in the memorandum were toothless.

"As President of Ukraine, I had a security guarantee in the form of the Budapest memorandum," he said. "It doesn't work. Any other security guarantee except one that is binding - that's unacceptable."

Ukraine is now at another historical turning point, while diplomats hastily search for the right place and the right formula for peace talks. It remains to be seen whether this moment as a dark chapter will be remembered in European history.

The CNN reporter Christian Edwards also contributed to reporting.