Trump's peace offer for Ukraine: too generous for Russia

Trump's peace offer for Ukraine: too generous for Russia

The definition of a deadline for negotiations about a deal that you want urgently is a risky tactic if the only way out is to withdraw. President Donald Trump threatened this tactic and emphasizes that on Wednesday it was Simple to achieve a deal with Russia as with Ukraine. Nevertheless, this seems to be a dangerous misjudgment of his own situation. It is easier to put pressure on Kiev because Ukraine is dependent on US help and intelligence for their survival. However, this does not mean that Russia is more ready to deal. In fact, the Kremlin hesitates noticeably.

The difference between business and geopolitics

Here there is a deep trench between the world of business transactions and that of geopolitical negotiations. Trump is no longer in the real estate industry - he doesn't try to move Putin to buy something. Rather, Trump pushes the Kremlin to accept conditions to end the war, which Putin apparently is convinced that he will improve over time and not deteriorate.

Trump's pressure on Russia

Trump briefly put pressure on Putin on Thursday and posted "Vladimir: Stop!" after Russian rockets Kiev attacks. Nevertheless, even these complaints used a friendly language and seemed to be annoyed by both the time of the Russian attack and the losses.

The situation on the front

The Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly rejected the US and Ukraine offer for a 30-day, unconditional ceasefire, which has been in existence for 44 days. Instead, the Kremlin unilaterally explained a ceasefire at Easter, which lasted 30 hours and was considered injured by Ukraine about 5,000 times. Both sides accuse each other of having violated an energy and infrastructure cautious arrest in March and April.

Questions about diplomatic agreements

The back and forth with the ceasefire raises the big question whether diplomatic agreements can be met or whether they actually lead to results. The allies of Ukraine refer to the one -sided, short and sudden ceasefire at Easter as evidence that the Kremlin sees ceasefire only as a possibility of reorganization, while negotiations serve to gain time in order to be able to pursue military goals later.

unclear expectations of Trump

Another problem with Trump's proposed deal is that it is not known what he is expecting from Moscow. A permanent standstill, based on the experience of the last month, could appear unrealistic. A general US Russian relaxation process may be desired by the White House, but without a permanent agreement for Ukraine, this could lead to a long-term division of transatlantic alliance and even NATO. This could unsettle many established republicans and numerous Americans and damage the dollar as well as the economic and geopolitical position of the USA.

What does that mean for Ukraine?

Trump made it clear that he did not ask for Kiev to recognize the Crimea annexed by Russia as part of Russia, as reported. The constitution of Ukraine prohibits such a step because it also requires Ukraine to strive for NATO membership-a goal whose task could also request Trump.

It seems that Trump's proposal could ask Ukraine to accept a frozen front line and possibly allow the recognition of Crimea as Russian by the United States. But both concessions have a limited usefulness.

The meaning of the Crimea

The Crimea is a peninsula that connects to the parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia, but is only connected to Russia by an unstable bridge. European and Ukrainian sanctions would continue to isolate the Crimea even according to a peace agreement. Both Europe and Kiev have made it clear that they do not accept the recognition of the Crimea as part of Russia, as this would represent a change in national borders by violence.

long -term perspectives

The consideration of freezing the front lines could also not be in the interest of Moscow. Putin's latest attempt to delay the diplomatic process suggests that the Kremlin believes that his best days are still on the battlefield. However, the problems with which Moscow is confronted, such as falling oil prices and a threatening manpower deficiency, are low compared to Kiev's recruitment problems and the likelihood of financing, if the bidges come from next year.

The time pressure

The predominant conflict is that Putin believes that the time is on his side while Trump has repeatedly declared the clock tick. These two opposing positions will not bring about permanent deal. The Kremlin may have recognized that it can gain small concessions from the White House for months to form a geopolitical picture that is more in his favor.

In every critical situation, Moscow also sees how Trump is doing against Zelensky. The Kremlin sees hardly or no consequences that it breaks the ceasefire. It observes an extremely impatient US president, whose team often deals with facts inaccurately. In the long term, Moscow could benefit from keeping diplomacy alive, even if it signs an early, chaotic deal that it may be revoked later. But there is no reason to believe that Moscow is interested in conversations that could actually solve the war or end the fight.