Trump will shake up the world - maybe that's necessary

Trump will shake up the world - maybe that's necessary

US President-elect Donald Trump's upcoming second term could be both frightening and redefine the world order, or overblown and insubstantial. But one thing is certain: Trump's presidency will be disruptive. Even the strongest form of American isolationism, involving little action, could herald significant change.

Trump’s unclear foreign policy

We know surprisingly little about Trump's foreign policy. He himself seems to want it that way. It is known that he is against wars that involve the USA. Trump seems to have a penchant for dictators or strongmen. He values ​​supposedly good deals and destroys anything he considers bad. He also has a distaste for American allies, whom he considers exploitative, and he does not believe in global warming. His first term revealed a man who always wanted to be at the center of events.

An unusual approach to security policy issues

What is particularly striking is how little Trump has clearly articulated his foreign policy positions. Do we remember the outrage when George W. Bush couldn't name Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in a 1999 interview? Trump would never be asked such a “gotcha” question.

The mainstream media is currently confused about how to cover this Choice so misjudged. A similar analysis of Trump's likely foreign policy seems appropriate. The fact is that Trump inherits a world not in peace, but in a reality marked by crises.

Global challenges and crises

The current one Biden administration leaves behind a series of global crises that are at best unresolved and at worst escalating. While the White House has made admirable efforts to act in difficult times, the question arises: Could it be possible that some disruption could also be fruitful? Can a chaotic rethinking actually be fruitful?

Trump's first term in office was rather uneventful compared to the events that followed. The fall of ISIS, entry bans and strange insults, the withdrawal from the Iran deal and the conclusion of an agreement with the Taliban, the Turkish invasion of northern Syria and the strange closeness to Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, were defining topics.

Geopolitical tensions remain high

The Biden administration has faced significantly more turbulent developments, including the inevitable collapse of America's longest war in Afghanistan, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and events in Israel and Gaza. Trump may have set some of these dynamics in motion, but Biden was certainly busier.

One might ask to what extent Trump had his own influence in his quiet first term in office. An example from this period that illustrates this is the assassination of the Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020. Sending a drone strike against one of the region's most prominent military figures was bold and shows how far Trump was willing to go. Surprisingly, however, Iran's response was limited.

New challenges for Israel and Iran

Trump's close relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, could support his position, but could also limit Israel's options. Israel's endless financing and arming of multiple conflicts contradicts Trump's goal of reducing U.S. global engagement.

Given the ongoing conflict in Gaza, Trump will also have to recognize the need to re-evaluate these events. Iran has had experience with Trump and could expect a potential attack from the US due to a nuclear program. However, Trump could also react proactively and attack Iran, supported by Israel. This comes at a moment when Iran appears exceptionally weak.

An uncertain relationship with China

The unpredictable mix of Trump's behavior and pride could have a particular impact on China. Xi Jinping congratulated Trump on his victory while warning that the US would lose from confrontation and win through cooperation. A dangerous trade war could be avoided through negotiations, but China must weigh the elusive intent of a U.S. president who would see it as weakness not to oppose a Chinese invasion of Taiwan but at the same time wants to avoid confrontation.

Dealing with the Ukraine conflict

The earliest and riskiest decision Trump will have to make concerns US support for Ukraine. A possible deal could see Kiev accept territorial concessions, which would allow Moscow to regroup. This would be extremely risky for European security.

However, in the current situation, Ukraine also needs time to reorganize. Ukraine is currently losing territory at an alarming rate. president Volodymyr Zelensky is aware that at some point the idea of ​​another “forever war” could become unattractive for NATO. Trump's words suggest that he wants a quick exit.

Conclusion

Trump's irrational relationship with Putin could make the terms of an agreement dangerous for Europe and NATO. But it would be naive to believe that these challenges would not exist. Trump's rise means that the US and its allies must prepare for the same problems with a different focus, means and priorities. This could have catastrophic effects on the global order and Western democracies, or it could force weary societies and alliances into a new, enlightened compromise.