Trump talks cheaply about Ukraine, but the Kremlin is testing him

Trump talks cheaply about Ukraine, but the Kremlin is testing him

When it comes to the War in Ukraine To end, President Donald Trump's statements and social media posts seem meaningless. The chances of an early ceasefire and peace depend on whether he actually finds the courage to back up the rhetorical attacks on President Vladimir Putin that he made over the weekend with concrete actions. The Kremlin, on the other hand, is betting that it won't do that.

Trump's response to Russia's aggressive offensive

The Kremlin dismissed Trump's frustration over Russia's most intense drone strikes on Ukraine as signs of "emotional overload." Experience shows that Putin can play with the US President's provocative statements. Finally, Trump's criticism of the Russian leader, whom he called "crazy" on Monday, was coupled with a characteristic lecture to the victim - Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Trump's possible options for action

Despite ongoing Russian attacks on civilians in Ukraine, it remains to be seen what steps Trump will take. The current circumstances could offer him the opportunity to shed the embarrassing image of being constantly duped by Putin. One option would be to impose new sanctions on Russia, which he had previously dismissed as hindering diplomacy. He mentioned Sunday in New Jersey that it could “absolutely” be considered.

The challenge for Trump

Another possibility that both Ukraine and its European allies fear is that Trump will withdraw, arguing that neither side wants peace and it is time for the US to withdraw. In such an event, Russia would continue its war of attrition and continue to attack civilians, setting a devastating precedent for European security and U.S. engagement.

The argument for a decisive US policy

A compelling reason why Trump might change his mind is that his credibility is at stake after his bold predictions that he will End war within 24 hours could turn out to be a fantasy. One option would be to introduce secondary sanctions against Russia, targeting financial institutions and companies that continue to do business with Moscow.

The pressure on Trump and the reactions of the allies

The US's European allies are watching closely to see whether Trump puts his announcements into action. French President Emmanuel Macron recently said that after conversations with Trump, he had the impression that he now realized that "President Putin told him on the phone that he was ready for peace" - but he was lying. Allies appear to be sensing a moment when Trump might change his mind after months of seeing him undermine their efforts.

Probability and skepticism towards Trump

However, there are two problems with the idea that Trump has finally made short work of the Russian leader. First, he was never particularly concerned with criticizing Putin. Second, the Russian leader's cruelty in war is by no means new. It is risky to interpret Trump's statements without further analysis because they often serve a political purpose. Analysts emphasize that one-off words are not enough and that decisive action is required.

“Words are cheap, and we wait for action,” concluded former senior U.S. intelligence official Beth Sanner.