Before the summit, Trump asks: What has changed about Putin?

Before the summit, Trump asks: What has changed about Putin?

President Donald Trump has often raved about his close relationship with Russia's Vladimir Putin. But in the months leading up to the two leaders' first meeting in six years, Trump began asking Europeans and White House aides what had changed regarding his Russian counterpart.

Frustration with Putin before the Alaska summit

The question, raised by three people familiar with the matter to CNN, highlights Trump's growing frustration with Putin. This came ahead of their summit in Alaska, which was supposed to focus on ending Russia's years-long invasion of Ukraine. Trump had already promised before taking office that he would quickly broker peace. However, not only has Putin rejected proposals for a ceasefire, but Russia has even continued its attacks on Ukraine this year escalated.

US intelligence agencies skeptical about Putin's goals

Although there are signs that Putin's short-term goals in Ukraine may have shifted, the prevailing view of the U.S. intelligence community is far more skeptical. Experts believe Putin continues to pursue his maximalist territorial goals and could use a ceasefire to regroup his forces and possibly make another push into Kiev. Despite European demands for security guarantees for Ukraine, Putin wants to ensure that Ukraine never joins NATO and that no foreign peacekeepers enter the territory.

Trump warns of consequences for Russia

Trump said on Wednesday that Russia would face "very serious consequences" if he concluded that Putin was not seriously interested in ending the war. Although Trump did not specify what those consequences might be, he has previously threatened Moscow with tougher economic sanctions or tariffs.

Putin is difficult to understand

Putin's intentions have historically been difficult to interpret. As a former KGB officer, Putin keeps an extremely close circle of confidants around him and it is unclear whose advice he follows at any given time. While the decades-long effort to unravel Putin has given the US vast institutional knowledge about him, the secret police have a notoriously poor view of his day-to-day decisions. The Kremlin remains a “persistent target” that is difficult to penetrate through traditional espionage.

Changes in Trump's thinking about Putin

Trump has expressed skepticism about the U.S. intelligence community in the past, particularly regarding its assessments of Russia. Therefore, it remains unclear to what extent he will rely on intelligence reports before the summit. A U.S. official familiar with recent intelligence analysis questioned whether Trump's advisers have clearly laid out the hard truths of the situation, including the widespread view that Putin believes it is in his best interest to continue the war.

Trump's anger at Putin

Trump's rising anger toward Putin began earlier this summer when special envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump's main contact in Russia, also expressed frustration with the Kremlin. According to information from the meetings, Trump began using frequent expletives when discussing Putin in private conversations. It became clear that Trump's perspective was changing.

Putin's isolation during the pandemic

Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, some U.S. intelligence officials believed Putin had become more paranoid due to his isolation during the pandemic. During that time, he rarely left his palace outside Moscow, and his public appearances were largely limited to video meetings with Russian Cabinet members.

Putin is fighting for victory

As the war enters its fourth year, Putin's determination to conquer Ukraine has clearly only strengthened. This makes him an increasingly challenging negotiating partner. Experts fear Trump will be lured into a deal that rewards Russia for the invasion.

In summary, it remains to be seen how the meeting between Trump and Putin will go and whether there can actually be progress in the talks about the war in Ukraine.