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Trump as a key player in the Russia-Ukraine conflict
The Ukraine-Russia conflict is all about the influence of Donald Trump. Who has Trump’s ear? An important call with Putin could have a decisive impact on the peace talks.
Trump as a key player in the Russia-Ukraine conflict
There is no doubt that the decisive battle in the Ukraine conflict is currently not taking place in the skies over Kiev or Dnipro, where Russian drone attacks have increased dramatically in recent days. Nor will the Russian army's protracted advances on the brutal front lines in eastern Ukraine determine the outcome of the war, now in its third year.
Fight for influence in Washington
The crucial battle raging between the warring factions and their allies is playing out in the ears of US President Donald Trump, who is increasingly frustrated with efforts to broker peace. That's why the phone call scheduled to take place today with Russian President Vladimir Putin could be crucial.
The role of the European Union
Moscow and Kiev are both trying to show that the other side is the real obstacle to peace, hoping to win over Trump's volatile opinions, at least in the short term. European officials have said they will also speak with Trump before he speaks on the phone with Putin. There are concerns that Trump's view of the conflict may be shaped by who he last spoke to.
The relationship between Trump and Putin
Last month, after a conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during Pope Francis' funeral, Trump expressed some of his harshest words toward Putin, condemning the Russian leader for the missile attack on Kiev. He added that he was not sure whether the Russian president was seriously interested in ending the war.
Putin's strategic advantages
During the conversation, Putin - who has refused to agree to the 30-day ceasefire demanded by Trump and accepted by Ukraine - will have Trump's ear to himself. He could make a variety of business offers, flattery or even provocative arguments that he considers effective.
The central role of Trump
Trump and Putin appear to share an unshakable belief that only they have the personal authority and ability to end the Ukraine war, while the Europeans and Ukrainians will ultimately do as they are told. The disappointing talks in the Turkish city of Istanbul last week - the first direct negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in years - appeared to have underscored Trump's own sense of centrality in a potential deal.
Fears of Ukraine
Ukraine's great fear is that the two leaders could develop their own peace plan during the phone call, which they present to President Trump, who then calls his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky. There is a possibility that they will try to impose Putin's terms amid renewed pressure to withdraw essential U.S. military and economic support.
Trump's influence on Russia
President Trump also has leverage against Russia if he chooses to use them. With casualties mounting and a strained economy, the Kremlin undoubtedly wants to avoid pressuring an angry Trump to restore and possibly double U.S. support for Ukraine's war effort.
Challenge of negotiations
The problem remains, however, that neither Russia nor Ukraine are currently willing to accept each other's minimum conditions or compromise sufficiently to satisfy the other side. However, that doesn't mean that conversations - whether face-to-face, face-to-face or on the phone - are pointless. If nothing else, they can reveal how far apart the two sides actually are.
An ongoing potential for conflict
What this could mean, however, is that even under pressure from the US, even after a direct phone call with President Trump, both Moscow and Kiev remain willing to continue the fight.