South Korea's Shrinking Population and Military: Danger from North Korea?

South Korea's Shrinking Population and Military: Danger from North Korea?

The signs have been evident for a long time: South Korea Birth rates have fallen significantly over the past decade, which Problems for the military while regional threats and global conflicts continue. According to a recent report, the number of South Korean soldiers has declined by 20% in the past six years, largely due to the shrinking pool of young men. This development reflects the declining working population and the growing number of older people in one of the rapidly aging countries reflected in the world.

Decrease in troop strength and challenges for defense

The Ministry of Defense report attributes the decline to "complex factors", including population decline and young men's declining interest in officer careers due to the "treatment of soldiers". The exact circumstances of this treatment were not specified, but previous studies and surveys have highlighted the military's notoriously harsh conditions. As of July, the military numbered 450,000 troops, down from 563,000 in 2019.

“If the number of active-duty soldiers continues to decline, there will be difficulties in securing qualified personnel and using equipment effectively,” warned the report released by Rep. Choo Mi-ae last week. These developments are particularly problematic for South Korea, which is a key Western alliance and hosts large numbers of American troops and has a defense pact with Washington.

Tense geopolitical environment

Just across the border is neighboring North Korea tens of thousands of soldiers sent to work for Russia at the Front line in Ukraine to fight – reinforcing fears that Moscow could share banned military technologies with Pyongyang. Meanwhile, North Korea's ruling family, led by Kim Jong Un, has continued to spread hostile rhetoric and threaten Destroy South Korea with nuclear weapons, in case it is attacked.

North Korea's own challenges

But experts emphasize that this does not necessarily mean North Korea's military is better equipped. North Korea is also struggling with its own population problems and a declining birth rate - its technology lags sharply compared to South Korea, which is now trying to make up for the lack of military personnel through innovation.

“South Korea is incomparably better positioned than North Korea when it comes to conventional weapons,” said Choi Byung-ook, a national security professor at Sangmyung University. “We may have fewer troops, but I prefer the term ‘small but strong military’ – that is the path we need to take.”

The demographic differences in the military

North Korea does have some advantages: It is one of the most militarized countries in the world with up to 1.3 million soldiers, according to the CIA World Factbook. This is almost three times the number of South Korean troops. In addition, North Korean soldiers serve an average of 10 years in the military, which leads to greater "unity and familiarity" among soldiers, according to Sydney Seiler, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

By comparison, most South Korean conscripts have little advanced skills after a year and a half of service. In terms of birth rates, North Korea will also be significantly higher at 1.77 in 2025 than South Korea with just 0.75. according to UN data. Since 2018, North Korea has been giving birth to more babies annually than the South.

The solution for future challenges

Some experts have floated the idea that enlisting more women could solve South Korea's problem, a possibility the Defense Department has not ruled out. But Professor Choi argues that the country should move away from the idea of ​​having to increase troop numbers and instead focus on technological advances and elite training of the troops. “I personally don’t think we need a large number of troops just because North Korea is doing that,” he said.

On the Battlefields of Europe Ukraine has impressively demonstrated how an outnumbered and poorly equipped military can still be able to fight a much larger enemy by new and affordable technology used.

Drones and cyber warfare could help reduce South Korea's dependence on infantry and artillery, says Seiler. AI-powered and autonomous systems could provide another means of bolstering the shrinking military, adds Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

Experimental reforms are necessary to improve military well-being and fighting spirit so that South Korea can continue to defend itself in the coming decades.