Russia's strategy: military presence in Libya as a key to power?

Russia's strategy: military presence in Libya as a key to power?

Russia's possible regrouping to Libya could have far -reaching consequences for Moscow, Tripolis and beyond.

The future of Russia in Syria is on the brink! While the analysts agree that the loss of Syria for Moscow does not mean any material losses, the strategic importance of the country for the Kremlin is undisputed. Russia has expanded its presence in the Mediterranean and in Africa over a decade and does not simply want to give up.

In the course of the Syrian War, Russia provided decisive military and diplomatic support that was essential for the maintenance of power of Bashar al-Assad. Important military bases such as the Khmeimim air force base and the Soviet naval port were significantly expanded in tarttous. But with the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) over Syria, the future of these bases is uncertain, and reports that Russia has already deducted parts of his troops.

Libya as a strategic alternative

The loss of these military bases would be a bitter blow for Russia that urgently is looking for alternatives. Libya, where Russia already has a presence, is seen as the only practical option if Moscow should withdraw its troops from Syria. But what would a sudden increase in Russian military forces for the already unstable Libya? And what effects would this have on NATO?

Oleg Ignatov, a leading analyst of the International Crisis Group, emphasizes that Russia has been trying to expand its presence in Africa since 2017 and are not willing to give up these ambitions. "Russia sees Africa as one of the main carpenters in the competition of the great powers," explains Ignatov. Via the military company Africa Corps, formerly Wagner Group, Russia already has military bases in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, who have demolished the west after military coups.

But the situation in Libya is tense. The country has been caught in a power struggle since the 2011 revolution, and the possibility of a Russian military base in the east could significantly influence negotiations between the rival governments. Khalifa Haftar, the self -proclaimed military leader in the east, could be strengthened by a Russian presence, which could endanger negotiations on national unity and the upcoming elections.

Geopolitical tensions and NATO

The geopolitical maneuvers in Libya should not be underestimated. Huttar could, if Russia shift its strength to Libya, dictate the negotiations and bring the western powers into a difficult situation. "If Russia completely moves to the east, hat could do what he wants," warns Tarek Megerisi from the European Council on Foreign Relations.

NATO faces a new threat, because the Russian presence in Libya could put pressure on the European migration routes and energy supply. Anas El Gomati from the Sadeq Institute in Tripolis explains: "Libya offers a unique opportunity - a foot in North Africa and in the Mediterranean, ideal for projecting power in Europe's soft underside and on the Sahel." However, despite these ambitions, there is little sign that Libya prepares for an increase in Russian military forces.

The satellite images do not show any new construction projects at Russia's Libyan air farms or at the port of Tobruk, which is under discussion as a further strategic port. El Gomati warns: "Do not underestimate Tobruk's potential. It is not yet a tarttous, but that is exactly the reason why Russia wants it."

The geopolitical tensions in the region are increasing and the world looks forward to developments. Will Russia expand its military presence in Libya? And what are the consequences for the fragile stability in Libya and NATO? The answers to these questions could significantly influence the geopolitical balance in the Mediterranean.