Putin's war plans: BND warns of escalating conflicts in Europe

Putin's war plans: BND warns of escalating conflicts in Europe

The geopolitical tensions around Russia continuously increase. According to an analysis by the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Vladimir Putin is planning a large -scale war, which has increased the concerns in Europe since Donald Trump has been taking office. The BND, supported by reports from the "Süddeutsche Zeitung", WDR and NDR, finds that, despite the Ukraine War, Russia is not weakened and continues to pursue imperialist goals. This development is particularly alarming because the BND is convinced that Putin is not satisfied with the current situation in Ukraine and is ready to lead a "large -scale conventional war" by the end of the decade.

In its analysis, the BND emphasizes that the Kremlin may consider a "limited military action against one or more NATO countries", with Estonia as possible. Such a procedure could aim to test the seriousness of the NATO support obligation (Article 5) and at the same time to check the US response under the Trump administration. It is reported that the Russian armed forces should be increased to up to 1.5 million soldiers by 2026. This is done in a context in which Russia's military spending on "breathtaking pace".

the NATO and its challenges

NATO has been faced with the need to restore credible deterrence and defense since 2014, especially with regard to the threats from Russia. These challenges are not only military in nature, but also affect the adaptation of the command structures and decision -making processes within the alliance. One has to differ between "Wars of Necessity" and "Wars of Choice", with the majority of the missions after the Cold War.

An important point in the current effort is the NATO Readiness Initiative 4-30, which aims to have 30 seasons ready for fighter planes, 30 large warships and 30 combat troop battalions within 30 days. This represents a crucial step towards improving military mobility, which is a challenge due to civilian infrastructure problems and regulatory requirements. Frequent exercises for lying larger associations are essential to ensure collective defense.

Return to alliance defense

The return to alliance defense since 2014 has created new dynamics in NATO. There was a significant reduction in NATO headquarters from 64 in 1991 to only 7 in 2017, which underlines the need to adapt the military skills. The foundation of the NATO Response Force in 2002 was an important step to re-shape the armed forces, but the current events are calling for a reform of the NATO command structure to improve management capacities.

A central concern remains the improvement of the quick reaction in crisis situations. Discussions about the relationship between political control and military decision -making are essential. While some NATO countries express concerns about the speed of reactions, it becomes clear that trust and credibility within the alliance must be strengthened in order to effectively counter potential threats.

The situation remains tense and it remains to be seen how NATO and its member states will react to the aggressive strategies of Russia. The BND and other analysts observe the development with concern because the geopolitical risks for Europe continue to increase.