Putin missing from Istanbul negotiations: what is at stake?

Putin missing from Istanbul negotiations: what is at stake?

On May 15, 2025, the focus will once again be on the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed direct talks in Istanbul in response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's call for an unconditional ceasefire to begin on Monday. It remains unclear whether Putin will travel in person. Vladimir Medinsky, Putin's adviser and former culture minister, will lead the Russian delegation, having recently led a previous meeting between the two countries in 2022 without any tangible results. The talks are taking place behind closed doors in Dolmabahce Palace, with no access for the press. However, US President Donald Trump will not take part in the talks after learning of Putin's whereabouts in Moscow. Trump had previously considered a short-term visit to Turkey, depending on the talks and the presence of Putin and Zelensky.

Ukraine remains skeptical given the unclear status of Putin's participation. Originally, Zelensky only wanted to negotiate directly with Putin. An insider reported that Zelensky left for Turkey on Wednesday to take part in the talks. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed cautious optimism as he stressed that the next step in the peace process must come from Russia. He further stated that Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire and immediate talks.

Previous negotiations and current challenges

The existing discussions fall into a context that is characterized by problems. As Russia continues to carry out attacks in Ukraine, President Putin claims to be open to diplomatic negotiations. However, this position contradicts Russian demands, which aim for Kiev's surrender and territorial renunciation without offering security guarantees. In addition, the Russian leadership does not recognize Ukraine's sovereignty. Political negotiations are collapsing on terms Kiev cannot accept and talks currently focus mainly on humanitarian issues rather than lasting peace.

The frustration over the failed negotiations is not new. In spring 2022, talks in Istanbul failed due to several factors. Ukrainian successes on the battlefield had led to an optimistic attitude from Kiev, while the Bucha massacre significantly deteriorated relations between the two countries. There was also a lack of trust in Russia's seriousness. These significant differences over security guarantees and the Russian-Ukrainian border led to the two sides parting ways in May 2022 without a peace agreement.

In addition to ongoing talks, Trump, who has criticized Ukraine's leadership team and blamed them for the ongoing war, has praised U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia as "very good." Zelensky, on the other hand, accuses Trump of adopting Russian propaganda. Pressure for progress in the peace process remains high while conditions on the battlefield remain tense.

The diplomatic path therefore remains narrow and fragile, with the hope that the negotiations in Istanbul could bring progress step by step. But the outcome remains adventurous and uncertain as both sides remain in their positions.