Georgia votes: Fear of voter fraud and Kremlin influence increases

Georgia votes: Fear of voter fraud and Kremlin influence increases

At the Joseph Stalin Museum in Gori, the small Georgian town where the Soviet dictator was born, numerous guides are on hand to tell the story of the local boy who came of age. They know the birthdays of Stalin's family and can recite poems he wrote as a schoolboy, because Stalin "could have been a poet, but chose to be a great leader." But they are less precise about other things. Of the millions who died in the Gulag, it is said that “mistakes were made.” They have little to say about show trials.

Stalin's legacy in Georgia

Stalin is so revered by some in Georgia that the government decided in 2010 to quietly remove his giant statue at night to avoid protests from locals. While some older voters in rural towns like Gori have nostalgic memories of life under communism and long for a Soviet past, they appear to be being overtaken by younger generations who only know democracy and are happy to relegate Stalin to the history books.

Prospects for the upcoming general election

Now, as the Caucasian country heads toward parliamentary elections on October 26, the shadow of authoritarianism is once again looming large over Georgia. Many observers fear that the ruling Georgian Dream party will do anything to stay in power. She has buried the liberal values ​​she promoted when she took office 12 years ago and effectively torpedoed Georgia's efforts to join the European Union.

The role of Bidzina Ivanishvili

The mysterious oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his billions in the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has threatened to jail his political rivals after the election and banish the main opposition party. After spending years in the shadows, Ivanishvili, who was prime minister of Georgia from 2012 to 2013, returned as the party's honorary leader late last year and has since made a series of conspiracy-ideological speeches.

Fear of the return of authoritarian tendencies

For many Georgians, Ivanishvili's rhetoric sounds eerily like the past they want to escape from. Furthermore, Georgian Dream's anti-Western stance and the controversial law on "foreign agents" reflect the repression that President Vladimir Putin is waging against domestic political opposition in Russia. Natalie Sabanadze, a fellow at the London think tank Chatham House and a former Georgian ambassador to the EU, noted: "It's incredible how much of that old Bolshevik, Stalinist language has returned. Everyone is a traitor, everyone is a foreign agent."

Controversies surrounding the politics of history

In a speech last month in Gori, Ivanishvili broke a taboo in Georgian society by saying Georgia should apologize for the 2008 war with Russia, for which many Georgians blame Moscow. Russia waged war in support of pro-Kremlin separatists in Georgia's South Ossetia region, not far from Gori, in the five-day conflict. Together with Abkhazia, another breakaway region, Russia now effectively occupies 20% of Georgia's territory.

The influence of past conflicts

Ivanishvili argued an apology to Russia would help preserve the "12 years of uninterrupted calm" the country has enjoyed under Georgian Dream's leadership, which he said could see the country threatened by the opposition. This news appealed to some voters in rural areas but caused political uproar. Mikheil Saakashvili, who served as Georgia's wartime president, called the comments a "betrayal."

Young generation and the path to the EU

Younger, pro-European Georgians are also outraged. Her first memories are not of the simpler life under communism, but of the Russian tanks that rolled into Gori and the capital Tbilisi. As you leave the Stalin Museum, past his personal train and the hut where he was born, many buildings are still marked by bullet holes from the 2008 war. Many buildings lie in ruins while Stalin Avenue remains pristine.

Dangers of an authoritarian regime

After the EU offered Georgia candidate status, there are concerns that the government is heading in the opposite direction. Some fear Georgia could return to the point it was a generation ago, when it lived under a unity government. Davit Mzhavanadze, a researcher at the Governance Monitoring Center in Tbilisi, emphasized: "The election will be decisive. If this government stays in power, Georgia will become more Belarusian than European."

Conclusion: A crucial moment for Georgia

Salome Zourabichvili, the Georgian president, expressed optimism about a possible victory for pro-European forces, while polls show only about a third of the population supporting Georgian Dream. Whether Ivanishvili is actually prepared to use his candidate status and implement the necessary reforms remains questionable. Amid these uncertainties, it is clear that the next election will be crucial for Georgia's future.