EU application for Ukraine: Risky security

EU application for Ukraine: Risky security

Even before the car wrecking of President Wolodymyr Selenskyj in the White House took place last month, the British Prime Minister Keir Stranger confidently spoke of the possibility of stationing British troops in Ukraine-which is generally understood as the use of soil troops-should be a ceasefire with Russia.

support for Ukraine

After the meeting in Washington, stranded strands, French President Emmanuel Macron and other European heads of state and government quickly support their support for the Ukrainian president. "This is not the moment for further discussions," emphasized Starmer after an important summit in London the following day. “Now it's time to act.”

The slow process

Well, four weeks later and after two other important meetings of European leaders, the overarching feeling is that of an inevitable process. It is probably not surprising that the preferred terminology is now characterized by a “calming troop” for Ukraine - the word “peace guard” no longer appears. Macron explained to the reporters after the meeting in Paris that such a troop would not act on the front line and would not act on behalf of the Ukrainian armed forces.

troop strength and possible uses

Latest reports point out that London may be more cool in the idea of sending troops to Ukraine. Despite these concerns, Macron insisted that nothing has been excluded so far. "We look at the situation in the air, at sea and at the country. Nothing is excluded," he said, adding: "This calming troop is used in Ukraine."

Further details are announced in due course, but the military chiefs from France and Great Britain now have the task of working with their Ukrainian colleagues in order to determine the required troops, their locations and their skills.

operational concept and challenges

In the military jargon, it is now necessary to work on the “operating concept”, which would be based on such a troop. What possible threats could you probably confront? Which rules for the procedure would be necessary? These questions are complex and are expected to take weeks to clarify them. Inevitably, when answering these questions, limited or non-existent US participation must be included, which could also slow the planning.

realistic expectations

The former Defense Minister of Ukraine, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, emphasizes that the ambitions must remain realistic. He refers to the obvious logistical challenges of the massive 1,000 kilometer front line to the Russian border and the low probability that the strangers and Macron would determine that European troops allow a direct fight against Russian soldiers. A stationed unit of British or French soil troops would be an ineffective company, he warns, as well as a less far -reaching commitment.

low deterrent effect

Zagorodnyuk critically commented on the idea: "There were so many conversations that Europe would take security measures. However, if you send 10,000 people to Kiev who are stuck in the city and cannot be able to change, this will certainly not change the Russia's calculations." In fact, such a measure with a minimal deterrent effect in Europe could even appear weaker. The temptation for Russia, London and Paris to humiliate - by breaking an armistice with an attack that is carried out hundreds of kilometers of British and French troops in the capital - could be difficult to resist.

air defense as a better option

in a paper that was written for the Royal United Services based in London, a defense hint tank, Zagorodnyuk and two colleagues suggest that a better option for Europe “Air Force Troops” on the ground - an engagement to monitor Ukrainian airspace before Russian attacks. Such a protective measure would almost certainly mean that British, French and other fighter planes are stationed in Ukraine, together with the associated crews and logistical support measures.

Even if Europe only provides air support above the western and central part of Ukraine, this would enable Ukraine to concentrate their strength on defending the eastern part of the country. A calming troop that goes no further than the stationing of air forces in Ukraine would still be an important step for Europe. The potential credibility risks remained, but would certainly be less than with a use of floor troops.

careful expectation management

At the same time, Europe has to be extremely careful. The management of expectations in the run -up to a possible announcement is also crucial. The credibility of a possible use is significantly measured by how well he coincides with what was previously discussed in public. If the impression arises that the efforts are neglected, not only will Ukraine feel over. Putin and Trump could also see their assumptions confirmed that Europe is incapable of acting.