Putin confidant in a small European state is facing the end

Putin confidant in a small European state is facing the end

When the Bosnian electoral authorities Milorad Dodik of his office as President of the small Serbian dominated state republica Srpska, he tried to seem unimpressed. But the controversial, genocide-denying nationalist immediately placed his own challenge to the institutions that try to overthrow him. "What if I reject?" he asked. It looks like Bosnia can soon find out what this means.

Dodik's political machinations

Dodik, an important Balkan ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been active in the politics of Bosnia since 2006 and is struggling with the state law structure of the country. This structure was launched in 1995 by the DayTon agreements that come to an end to violence in the former Yugoslavia. Although the Dayton agreements ended the War of Bosnia, they left a country that is ethnically divided. Bosnia consists of two entities: the Federation, where Bosniaken (Bosnian Muslims) and Croatians take part in power, and the Republika Srpska dominated by Serbs. There is a largely toothless central government and a foreign "high representative", which is equipped with far -reaching powers in order to enforce the agreement and to secure peace.

Dodik and the legal challenges

Dodik, who has threatened to separate from Bosnia for years and to "unite" Serbia, was convicted in February for disregarding the orders of the current high representative, Christian Schmidt. Last week, an appellant confirmed his one -year prison sentence and his six -year ban on office. Although Dodik missed a fine by paying a fine, the election commission in Bosnia decided on Wednesday to apply the law that automatically removes an official from office if he was convicted of more than six months in prison.

Reactions to Dodik's procedure

After two decades of fighting the institutional structures of Bosnia, many are surprised that the authorities implemented the judicial decision so quickly. Arminka Helić, who escaped the wars in the 1990s and is now in the British Oberhaus, told CNN: "Since 2006, Dodik has done his best to weaken Bosnia's institutions and undermine the state from the inside. I do not believe that he would have expected someone to question their status after all their threats." The question is now whether Dodik tacitly tuned or resisting, says Helić.

The risk of another conflict

At the moment it looks more like resistance. Dodik threatened to prevent the new elections, if necessary by force, and is looking for support from his allies in Belgrade, Moscow and Budapest. "Championship is not an option," said Dodik. Moscow, which has long been expected, that Dodik will create unrest in the Balkans, warned that the region could "get out of control". His message in Bosnia warned that the country is making a "historical mistake".

The role of the West and international diplomacy

When Dodik initially got power, western diplomats were pleased. After the bloodbath of the 1990s, he seemed to initiate an era of stability. But since then he has changed into uncontrolled nationalists who deny the massacre of 8,000 Bosniaks in Srebrenica in 1995 and often meets Putin in Moscow. Dodik has attacked the structures of the Dayton Agreement and made it difficult for Bosnian institutions to act in his region while he ultimately threatens to split the republica Srpska from the rest of the country.

Concendants of Allies and International Reactions

His European allies have started to support his cause. Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian Prime Minister, rejected the lawsuit against Dodik as an attempt by the foreign high representative to "remove him because he rejects its globalist agenda". Marko Djurić, Serbia's Foreign Minister, also said that Schmidt Dodik was subjected to a "political witch hunt". Dodik has started to intensify his contacts with the Trump administration because he vehemently claims to be the victim of "legal persecution" by an unchected bureaucrat.

An unsafe outcome

The decision of the electoral authorities against Dodik will come into force as soon as the opposition period has expired. New elections will then be scheduled within 90 days. But it remains unclear who will enforce the decision if Dodik refuses to withdraw or hinder the new elections. While the EU reinforced its peace troops in the country in March, they did not attempt to arrest Dodik itself as an arrest warrant.

Jasmin Mujanović, a senior fellow at the New Line Institute, said that the Bosnian and European authorities are faced with a "big exam" if Dodik was to be in office. "If you cannot handle people like Milorad Dodik, you really have no right to talk to actors such as (China's leader) XI Jinping or Vladimir Putin," he said.

Although Dodik threatened not to accept the judgment, a large part of its supporter base has lost support in the entity. There has been an "elite exit" in the Republika Srpska for months, while the political opposition begins to imagine "post-dodic future". Nebojša Vukanović, founder of an opposition party in the entity, said that only the complete removal of Dodiks from the office could end the "constant crisis" in Bosnian politics and ultimately put the institutions into account to hold the responsible for crimes and corruption into account. Dodik is under US sanctions because he built a "corrupt patronage network".

However, Helić warned that in desperation he could tend to ruthless action - such as an attempt to completely split off from Bosnia - if he thinks he has nothing to lose. "A desperate person could decide to do something that the country continues to destabilize," she said.