Trump's armor announcement helps Ukraine, but sanctions are missing
Trump's armor announcement helps Ukraine, but sanctions are missing
Donald Trumps statements on Ukraine were far from the most important announcement that the US President could have made.
arms deliveries to Ukraine - a ray of hope for Kyiv
The good news for Kyiv is well known. Trump has allowed other NATO member states to acquire American weapons-a wide range of it, it seems. Including the urgently needed Patriot-Affangrakets . Trump even indicated that there are 17 copies that are “left” in a NATO country.
The necessary support for Ukraine
Regardless of the exact reality of the weapon package that NATO will ultimately provide, it corresponds exactly to what Trump addresses on weekends and what Ukraine urgently needs. The nightly shelling of Russian ballistic rockets can only be stopped with US patriot rockets, and only the white house can approve their delivery. Ukraine has a lack of this and other advanced American weapons, which may not have been mentioned by name, but could be part of the package. This is a short -term but crucial support.
Missing secondary sanctions against Russia
But the stab for Ukraine lies in what has not been announced: immediate secondary sanctions against customers of Russian energies that could significantly empty Moscow's health insurers. The proposal for sanctions that are discussed in a Trade with buyers of Russian hydrocarbon products - would have been devastating.
global effects of the sanctions
These sanctions would hit China and India - the main competitor of the United States and an important ally - at a time when oil prices are low, but the trading problems are high. The effects on the energy markets would have been noticeable, and the United States would also have been affected by probably higher oil prices. However, these sanctions would come with a significant delay, together with a rather toothless threat of sanctions against Russia itself (since there is hardly any trade that could be punished).
a time frame for Putin and international politics
fifty days for Vladimir Putin until September, so that Trump changes his opinion or the alleged summer offensive of the Russian president changes reality on the battlefield so that Putin is willing to strive for an armistice. This creates a time window in which New Delhi and Beijing could try to wean themselves from Russian energy-which is unlikely given its dependency and the complexity of this situation-or possibly put pressure on Moscow to end the war. This is also a difficult task for Beijing, whose civil servants have recently indicated that they cannot see how Moscow loses the conflict without the USA of all their attention to their rivalry.
Trump's optimistic view of the Kremlin
The deadline also shows that Trump has not yet given up the most difficult element of his Ukraine policy: that the Kremlin actually wants to peace and has not yet been sufficiently convinced. Trump has again set a deadline to push Russia into a deal. We have already been at this point, and Putin has already ignored the tick. However, it is important to notice Trump's change in the sound-the mood could perhaps be the more constant indication of white house policy than the specific details.
Trump's attitude to Ukraine - an unchanged basic structure
The US President stranged through all the phases of Putin's politics-a spring of hope that peace is possible, a short summer of diplomacy in Golf and Istanbul, an autumn of deteriorated relationships and now, finally, the same winter of the mission, which was the standard position of President Joe Biden. However, after six months in which Russian diplomacy - its synthetic and performative nature, combined with cynical, maximum demands - played its muscles, has not yet given up to convince the Kremlin to end its existential war.
Trump has also kept away from some of the more difficult options that were available to him. There is no new American money for Ukraine, and we have not heard any public about the delivery of new skills.
Trump's Ukraine policy has changed in its mood, but retains central elements of its past. The desire that someone other than the USA will pay the invoice; Deadlines for actions instead of immediate consequences in the event of inactivity; And a confusing belief that the Kremlin wants peace. Kyiv will be relieved at first, but could soon feel a familiar feeling of disappointment.
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