Trump's rocket emission helps Ukraine, but lack of sanctions pain

Trump's rocket emission helps Ukraine, but lack of sanctions pain

On Monday, Donald Trump's statements about Ukraine were anything but the greatest announcement that the US President could have made. The good news for Kiev is already known: Trump has allowed other NATO member states to buy American weapons-and apparently in a wide range. This includes the urgently needed Patriot-fangraketen that fire. Trump even indicated that 17 copies are available in a NATO country.

arms deliveries and short -term support for Ukraine

No matter how exactly the weapon package looks that NATO ultimately provides, it corresponds exactly to what Trump indicated on weekends and what Ukraine urgently needs. The nightly shelling of Russian ballistic rockets can only be stopped by US patriot rockets, and only the white house can authorize their delivery. Ukraine is not only under -supplied with regard to this, but also on other sophisticated American weapons that may not have been mentioned by name and could be part of the deal. This is a short -term, vital support.

missed announcements and possible effects

But the stab for Ukraine comes in what has not been announced: immediate secondary sanctions against customers of Russian energy that could significantly empty Moscow's health insurers. The scope of sanctions proposed by a draft law in the US Senate-potentially 500 % on all trade relationships with buyers of Russian hydrocarbons-would have devastating effects.

These sanctions would hit China and India - the main competitor and the most important allies in the United States - at a time when oil prices are low, but the commercial turfers are high. The effects on the energy markets would be noticeable, and the United States would also be affected by probably higher oil prices. However, this effect would come with a significant delay, together with the rather toothless threat of sanctions against Russia itself (since there is almost no trade that could be punished).

The deadline and the geopolitical mystery

Fifty days give Vladimir Putin time until September to see whether Trump changes his opinion or whether the supposedly upcoming summer offensive of the Russian president changes military reality in such a way that Putin is willing to look for a conflict break. This opens up a time window in which New Delhi and Beijing could possibly try to decouple themselves from Russian energy-which is unlikely in view of their dependency and the complexity of this task-or exert pressure on Moscow to end the war. This is also a difficult requirement for Beijing, whose civil servants recently indicated that they cannot see how Moscow loses the conflict without taking the risk that the United States fully concentrate on their rivalry with China.

Trump and his persistent hopes for peace

The deadline also shows that Trump still adheres to the unattainable dream of his Ukraine policy: that the Kremlin actually wants to peace and has not yet been sufficiently persuaded to do so. Trump set up another deadline to push Russia into a deal. We already know this situation, and Putin has already ignored the ticking clock several times.

Nevertheless, it is important to emphasize Trump's change in rhetoric - the mood could perhaps be a more constant reference to the policy of the White House than the concrete details. There was an revealing moment when Trump avoided calling Putin a murderer and a picture of a white house outlined, in which the First Lady often reminds him of how violently Kiev is hit by Russian drones and rockets.

A look at the future and expectations of Ukraine

The US President has acted extremely fluctuating in all phases of Putin policy-from the hope of peace in spring to a short phase of diplomacy in Gulf and Istanbul to an autumn of deteriorated relationships and now, the same winter of dissatisfaction, which is considered the standard position of President Joe Biden. But after six months in which Russian diplomacy - its synthetic and performative nature, combined with cynical, maximum demands - had their muscles played, Trump still has not given up to convince the Kremlin to voluntarily end its existential war.

Trump has also avoided some of the tougher options that were available. There is no new American money to Ukraine, and we have not heard any public about new skills provided.

Trump Ukraine policy may have experienced a change in its mood, but keeps central elements of the past: the desire that someone other than the United States bears the costs; Deadlines for measures instead of immediate consequences for inactivity; And a confusing belief that the Kremlin wants peace.

Kiev will be relieved at first, but could soon feel a familiar feeling of disappointment.