Trump shortens deadline for Putin - Ukraine sees hope for peace
Trump shortens deadline for Putin - Ukraine sees hope for peace
The US President Donald Trump has announced that the period of 50 days he set for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine to only "10 or 12 days". But will a shorter deadline actually make a difference if, as Trump explains, his Russian counterpart Putin has already decided not to make peace?
The current situation in Ukraine
possibly. Ukraine is currently at one of the most critical points on the front since the beginning of the war. Until September 3-the original date on which the 50-day period would have expired-many of the territorial profits that Moscow apparently strive could already be realized.
In view of the considerable progress that Moscow has made in the past two weeks, it is likely that the Russian armed forces will try to surround the eastern nodes Pokrovsk and Kostiannivka as well as Kupiansk in the north.effects on the strategic location
Such a development could massively change the dynamics on the front and Putin's goal of conquering the Donetsk region, within reach. This would make the defense of the area between the east of Ukraine and Kiev considerably more difficult before the coming winter period. Ukraine would lose control of many cities that it is now dependent on keeping the east and would have difficulty defending Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
reactions from Kyiv
Trump's statements were received positively in Kyiv. Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj, said that he was "firm and send a clear message of peace through strength." Yermak emphasized that Trump had already announced that the deadline for Putin has already announced, since the answer was obvious: "Putin only respects power - and this message is loud and clear."
The importance of the next 10 to 12 days
What will happen in the next 10 to 12 days is crucial. An empty threat or a continued change of Trump's deadline could nourish the skepticism of his administration and strengthen doubts about his will to seriously put pressure on Kremlin.
global consequences of sanctions
The imposition of secondary sanctions or tariffs that Trump has threatened could have huge global effects. These would punish India and China because they buy Russian oil and gas.
India is a US ally, heavily dependent on Russian energy, and may move it through complex mechanisms to prevent increased demand on other energy markets from increasing oil prices, which could also harm the American economy. China, on the other hand, is an even more allied ally and is in a complex, sometimes symbiotic economic relationship with the United States, which is often balanced on the sidelines of a trade war.
keep an eye on the political landscape
If Trump imposes sanctions against one of the two countries, this would be harmful to the US economy and the global energy market and could represent its measures as even more powerful and aggressive than everything his predecessor Joe Biden has done.
The pressure from China could influence Moscow behavior, with Beijing has already told European diplomats that it cannot afford to lose Russia because the United States would then focus entirely on China. China could rely on the fact that Trump is weakened instead of converting his entire geopolitical approach.
So we have a two -week period in which Moscow has to convince its allies and customers to continue to buy the energy required. Ukraine must try to keep as many positions as possible, given an angry and successful Russian attack. The Trump administration must decide whether its threats actually have meaning.
And if you are not ready to risk an enormously economic earthquake, you have to find a convincing way out so that your deadlines and threats continue to be weight.
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