Trump shortens Deadline for Putin: Diffuse's sign of hope for Ukraine
Trump shortens Deadline for Putin: Diffuse's sign of hope for Ukraine
The US President Donald Trump has announced that the period of 50 days he set Russia's President Vladimir Putin in order to achieve a ceasefire with Ukraine-to only "10 or 12 days". However, the question arises whether a shorter period actually makes a difference when Trump himself claims that his Russian counterpart has already decided not to make peace.
The current situation in Ukraine
Maybe the question has a certain meaning. Ukraine is facing its biggest challenges on the front since the beginning of the war. Until September 3-the original end of the 50-day period-many of the progress that Moscow is currently making would already be visible.
strategic developments
In view of the pace and strategic nature of progress that Moscow has made in the past two weeks, it is likely that the Russian troops will be on the verge of circuiting the eastern centers of Pocrovsk, Kostiannivka and Kupiansk in the north. That would massively change the dynamics on the front and Putin's goal of taking over the Donetsk region. In addition, the defense of the area between the east of Ukraine and Kiev would make it much more difficult in the coming winter. Ukraine could lose control of many cities that it currently needs to secure the East and would have difficulty keeping the position in Kramatorsk and Slovjanskt.reactions to Trump's announcement
Trump's words were welcomed in Kiev, where Andriy Yermak, the head of the staff of the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj, said that he was "firm and brings a clear message of peace through strength."
"(the US President) has already said that he shortens the time frame he set Putin because the answer is obvious. Putin only respects power-and this message is loud and clear," said Yermak on X.
The consequences of possible sanctions
What happens in 10 to 12 days is crucial. An empty threat or a changed period of Trump could affect the sensitivity of his administration and the double -fledged, who doubt that Trump is willing to handle the Kremlin hard.
The imposition of secondary sanctions or tariffs that Trump has threatened would have an enormous impact on the global market. These sanctions would punish India and China who buy Russian oil and gas.
The role of India and China
India is a US ally and heavily dependent on Russian energy, while various complex mechanisms enable them to buy them to prevent its demand from driving oil prices on other energy markets, which could also harm the American economy. China, on the other hand, is a Russian ally who depends even more on Russian energy and is in a complex, sometimes symbiotic, economic relationship with the United States, which often heads for a trade war.
If Trump imposes sanctions against one of these two countries, this would damage both the US economy and the global energy market and probably represent his actions as clear and aggressive than that of his predecessor, President Joe Biden.
geopolitical considerations
Chinese pressure could influence Moscow behavior, but Beijing European diplomats also announced that it cannot afford to lose Russia because the United States could then turn to China. China could rely on a weakened Trump instead of realigning its entire geopolitical strategy.
The world is two weeks ago in which Moscow has to convince its allies and customers to continue to buy the energy they urgently need. Ukraine must try to keep its positions while facing a violent and successful Russian attack. The Trump administration must decide whether its threats actually have meaning.
And if you are not ready to endure a huge economic earthquake, you have to find a convincing way out so that your deadlines and threats continue to be weight.
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