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Trump announces rocket aid for Ukraine, but sanctions against Russia are missing
Trump allows NATO to buy US weapons for Ukraine, which brings urgently needed relief. But lack of sanctions against Russia leave a bitter aftertaste.
Trump announces rocket aid for Ukraine, but sanctions against Russia are missing
London, CNN-Donald Trumps statements about Ukraine were far from the biggest topic that the US President would have been can.
The good news for Kyiv is known. Trump has allowed the other NATO members to buy American weapons-including a variety of urgently needed Patriot-Fangrakets as well as the associated batteries. Trump even indicated that 17 units could be "left" in a NATO country.
arsenal of key weapons
Regardless of the exact details of the weapon package that NATO ultimately provides, it corresponds exactly to what Trump suggested on weekends and exactly what Ukraine needs. The nightly shelling with Russian ballistic rockets can only be stopped by US patriot rockets, and only the white house can approve their delivery. Ukraine suffers from a lack of this and other highly developed American weapons, which may not have been mentioned by name, but which could be part of the deal. This represents a short -term, decisive relief.
Missing sanctions against Russia
But the damper for Ukraine comes in the form of what has not been announced: immediate secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian energies that Moscow could empty a lot. The scope of the sanctions, which was proposed by -possibly 500% on all the trade with which, buy the Russian hydrocarbons - would have been overwhelming.
international effects of sanctions
These sanctions have met China and India - the most important rivals and key allies in the United States - at a time when oil prices are low, but the trade stress high. The effects on the energy market would have been noticeable, and the United States would also have been affected by probably higher oil prices. However, these effects would occur late, together with the somewhat toothless threat of sanctions against Russia itself (since there is hardly any trade that could be punished).
Putin's patience put
fifty days give Vladimir Putin time until September to change Trump or to change the reality on the battlefield through the alleged summer offensive in such a way that Putin is considering stopping the conflict. This creates a time window in which New Delhi and Beijing could try to decouple themselves from Russian energy-which seems unlikely given their dependency and complexity that is connected to it-or possibly exert pressure on Moscow to end the war. This is also a major challenge for Beijing, whose civil servants recently indicated that they cannot see how Moscow loses the conflict without the United States paying all their attention to rivalry with China.
The illusion of peace
The expiry of the deadline also shows that Trump has not yet given up to capture the unfulfilled idea of his Ukraine policy: that Kremlin actually wants to peace and has not yet been adequately convinced. Trump set up another deadline to move Russia to a deal. We have been here before and Putin had the ticking clock carelessly rushed past.
changes in Trump's rhetoric
However, it is important to notice Trump's changed tone - the mood may be a more permanent indicator of the policy of the White House as the specific details. A remarkable moment was when Trump failed to call Putin a murderer, and a picture of a white house, in which the first lady often reminds him of how violently Kiev is hit by Russian drones and rockets.The fluctuations in US politics
The US President went through extreme fluctuations throughout the support for Putin-from the hopeful spring mood that peace is possible, over a short summer of diplomacy in Golf and Istanbul, an autumn cooling of relationships, and finally the winter of dissatisfaction, the Joe Bidens standard position. After six months, in which Russian diplomacy - its synthetic and staged nature, combined with cynical, maximum demands - had their muscles played, did not give up Trump to voluntarily stop the existential war.
an uncertain future for Ukraine
Trump has also withdrawn from some of the harder options that are available. No new American money will flow to Ukraine, and we have also heard nothing public about new skills that could be delivered. Trump's Ukraine policy may have changed in her mood, but retains important elements from the past. The desire that someone other than the United States bears costs; Deadlines for measures, instead of immediate consequences for inactivity; And a confusing belief that the Kremlin wants peace.
Kyiv will be relieved at short notice, but could soon feel a familiar feeling of disappointment.