Election 2025: Who moves to parliament? Overview of exciting surveys!

On February 23, 2025, the signs in Germany are on the election campaign: Current surveys show a clear picture of the political landscape. The Union leads stable with 28 to 31 percent, followed by the AfD, which achieves remarkable results with 20 to 21 percent. The SPD is significantly behind at 15 to 16 percent, while the Greens only move behind at 13 to 14 percent. The left has also fought back into the race and now reaches 6 to 8 percent in the surveys. On the other hand, it looks critical for the FDP (4 to 5 percent) and the BSW (3 to 5 percent), which have to fear the move into parliament, as Vol.at reported.

An important element of the upcoming choice is the 2023/2024 voting right reform. This reform has limited the number of Bundestag mandates to 630 and in the future dispenses with the allocation of overhang and equalization mandates. This means that the candidates in the constituencies that receive most of the first votes may not move directly into the Bundestag - a fact that could have a significant impact on the distribution of seats. In the Bundestag election 2025, a party must not only receive the majority of the first votes, but also enough second votes to secure their seats in the Bundestag. The exact distribution then takes place in two steps, as the Federal Center for Political Education explains. This regulation could decisively influence the dynamic balance of power in the Bundestag.

new challenges for the parties

The upcoming elections are therefore not only a location for the parties, but also demand strategic thinking, especially with regard to changes to the electoral law. While the Union and the AfD benefit from the current survey values, there are great challenges for the other parties to survive in the new political system.