Weak Iran has hardly any options for retaliation against Israel

Weak Iran has hardly any options for retaliation against Israel

Given the Influent air attacks Israel on Friday is unclear whether his long-standing counterpart - is able to show the expected violent reaction. Israel has once again proven that it is the leading military and intelligence power in the Middle East, regardless of civilian victims or the diplomatic consequences of his actions for its allies.

Israel's military operations

As with his remarkable operation to neutralize his northern opponent-the Iranian proxy militia in Lebanon, Hezbollah -the nightly operation also indicates months or even years. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might have been before the decision to use this ability or lose it now, since diplomacy is going on this weekend as part of the sixth round of nuclear talks between the USA and Iran in Oman.

The consequences for Iran

Iran is now faced with considerable losses. Pictures from Tehran show that apartment blocks have been hit in a targeted manner - this indicates a precise destination for individuals, probably by persecution of mobile phones. Iran has lost its three top active commanders as well as a leading voice overnight. While the dust lies down, it could turn out that even more was hit, and the survivors should be concerned that they too could be targeted.

The militarization of the conflict

This situation will slow down and complicate any Iranian reaction. The damage that Iran continues to suffer also play a role. A attack by Israel in October destroyed a large part of the air defense. The Israeli military announced that it destroyed dozens of radars and floor-air missile thrower in air raids on air defense systems in Westiran. The Iranian atomic energy authority confirmed that the nuclear enrichment system in Natanz was also damaged, but it is still unclear to what extent.

a long -term strategy approach

In the coming days, the superior intelligence device of Israel will search for occasional goals - commanders and equipment that change their location, or the movement of material to facilitate a reaction - and continue to carry out attacks. Such a comprehensive attack was only possible because Hezbollah - Iran's second punch was dismantled by a merciless but effective campaign last summer. This begins like a monthly Israeli plan to remove a regional threat.

The geopolitical implications

The risks remain high. Iran could now try to get to a nuclear bomb faster. But his weakening defense and the clear, humiliating infiltration by Israel's secret services make this a risky company. To promote the construction of an atomic bomb is not an easy task, especially under fire, while the managers are endangered by precise attacks. Netanyahu could have come to the conclusion that the risk of an Iranian nuclear outsider was reduced and that it is possible to get a grip on even more military power.

The influence of the United States on the conflict

Another episode of the nightly shelling concerns the geopolitical influence of the Trump administration. In the coming hours, there could be suggestions from Trump supporters that the Israeli attack was part of a more comprehensive plan to weaken Iran from further diplomacy. In truth, however, a simpler truth becomes apparent: Israel had no confidence in the United States to achieve an agreement with Iran that would eliminate its nuclear ambitions.

Despite public views of the US President Donald Trump, itself "NOFOLLOW" Target = "_ blank" href = "https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/11/middleeast/us-rampsup-pressure-as-tells-netanyahu-t-gaza-and-stop-threing-iran-intl", Israel went with the most important attack on the Iran Since the war with Iraq in the 1980s. Israel did not take care of Trump's reaction and is apparently ready to take the risk of a struggle without the US support.

The challenges of nuclear proliferation

What does that mean for proliferation now? We still know little about the Iranian nuclear program. Israel could have known much more. But we are now at a crucial point at which the attacks on the Natanz facility could either announce its end or a race for completion in the form of an atomic bomb. Iran has always emphasized that its nuclear program serves peaceful purposes, but the United Nations nuclear supervisory authority stated on Thursday that Iran violated its nonsense commitment, which caused Tehran to threaten with an escalation.

future development in the Middle East

At the moment of its greatest weakness, the Islamic Republic will have difficulty maintaining the regional self -confidence that it has maintained it for decades. It seems that she is unable to use the current diplomatic relationship with the United States as a way out without looking even weaker. It also seems impossible for her to hit Israel and could try to strike asymmetrical, if possible.

In the immediate confusion, a fundamental fact becomes clear: Israel is currently in the Middle East unaffected by allies, without fear of greater risks and - sometimes brutally - to change the regional dynamics for the coming decades.