Trump recognizes that wars in Ukraine and Gaza are difficult

Trump recognizes that wars in Ukraine and Gaza are difficult

President Donald Trump increasingly realizes that his self-confident appearance on the campaign path in relation to peace agreements cannot bring any quick successes, while the wars continue to romp on other fronts. When Trump announced a tiny progress in his peace plan for Ukraine on Tuesday, another desired ceasefire broke down for which he claimed personal loan. Israel started a new attack on Hamas in the Gaza Strip and killed hundreds of civilians.

geopolitical challenges for Trump's peace efforts

The call of the US president with the largely persistent Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returns to a comprehensive war, clarifies that the political priorities of these two leaders will probably be over his own. The promising geopolitical mood, which Trump's dream of a legacy as a global peace founder stands in the way, is not exactly favored by the reality that he wants to return to the Oval Office.

Trump's growing ambitions

There are increasing signs that Trump's goals go beyond the mere end of the fights and aim at a fair, sustainable peace solution. Reports about his conversation with Putin amplify the fears of the Ukrainian government and its European partners that Trump sees war as a means of reaching Moscow. This lets him look at the conflict through a Russian lens, which is also shown by the fact that he sharply criticized the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj until he committed himself for Trump's 30-day ceasefire plan while he praised Putin when he did not agree on Tuesday.

Trump's pressure on its allies

The surrender of Washington towards Netanyah's return to bombing in the Gaza Strip has destroyed the efforts of Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff to get hostages and to ensure a second contract for the end of a war that hindered the main goal of the government - a historical peace agreement between Israel and the Arab states. However, a new US air offensive against Iran-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen indicates that Trump is now focused on another goal: to increase the pressure on the Islamic Republic in order to force you to negotiate your nuclear program or to weaken your regional proxies, in front of a possible Israeli or US attack on your nuclear facilities.

The geopolitical implications of Trump's attempts at peace

In the event of his return to power, Trump sharply criticized his European allies and expressed expansionist demands towards Canada, Greenland and Panama. The biggest question in his foreign policy so far is when or whether it will be ready to put pressure on Putin or Netanyahu. His obvious ambition to win the Nobel Peace Prize could depend significantly. The White House was optimistic about the course of telephone calls between Trump and Putin. However, the most important finding from the conversation was the Russian rejection of the US idea for immediate ceasefire.

Trump's confidence and the reality of the results of the conversation

Trump described the phone call as "very good" and emphasized that only he could do such a performance while he predicted quick progress despite the new obstacles from Putin. "If I were not here, he would never do it," he said about the Russian leader in an interview with the Washington Examiner. According to Trump, the next step would be a complete ceasefire and an agreement: "I think that will go pretty quickly."

There is a reason to gradually emphasize progress at the beginning of a peace process to create momentum and increase the price for the warfare parties if they withdraw. Therefore, Trump's optimism may not be inappropriate. However, his complacency could be a political attempt to disguise the failure of his complete ceasefire plan, given the reality that Putin has no interest in a quick peace, in view of his recent success on the battlefield.

The narrow line between progress and standstill

Nevertheless, the President has reached one of the first steps to reduce the intensity of the fights since the Russian invasion three years ago. If he succeeds in creating peace, it would be an enormous performance that could save thousands of life. But his personal credibility is at stake-and depends on a Russian leader who has repeatedly broken agreements and ceasefire and has outwit all US presidents from the last quarter of the year.

The consequences of Putin's rejection

No positive spin could hide Putin's refusal to agree to the US plan for a 30-day full ceasefire. Instead, the Russian President made a new series of conditions that would be unacceptable for Ukraine and stir up the fears of Europe that peace would lay the breeding ground for a future war on Kremlin conditions. "To express it very easily, Putin rejected the suggestion that was on the table," said William Browder, the head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign.

The political goals of Netanyahu

The collapse of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip shows the restrictions with which the government has so far been confronted in order to convert the initial breakthroughs into sustainable agreements. Many US observers have long believed that Netanyahu never wanted to go beyond the recent first phase of a ceasefire to end a war that broke out after the massacre of Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023. According to a count of CNN, Tuesday was the deadliest day in the Gaza Strip for over 15 months after Israeli forces had scored several goals and killed more than 400 people.

Netanyahu said that he had started new attacks because Hamas refused to released the remaining hostages or to agree to the US proposal to extend the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Hamas, on the other hand, emphasized that she had not rejected the US proposal and wish to extend the ceasefire. Nevertheless, the radical Islamic group had little incentive to release the living hostages, which is the last, cruel negotiating mass in a conflict that Netanyahu would only want to end if the group is exterminated. "This is just the beginning," said the Israeli Prime Minister on Tuesday.

During the return to warfare, Netanyahu's corruption test was temporarily suspended. Many critics of the Prime Minister believe that he intentionally extended the war in Gaza to delay a process that could bring him into prison in the event of a conviction. Similar to Putin, for whom the Ukrainklieg has become an existential concern, Netanyahu could have to continue the war to consolidate its power. For Trump, whose common man is, there are also enormous political incentives to silence the weapons. Either way, the US President will sooner or later be faced with difficult political decisions that he has so far.