Israel threatens Iran with killing its leader - possible consequences

Israel threatens Iran with killing its leader - possible consequences

As US President Donald Trump considers joining Israel's attack on Iran, questions are growing as to whether such an intervention could lead to regime change in Tehran. Such an outcome risks dividing the country and sending shockwaves through the region. Experts warn that Iran, marked by long-running separatist movements fighting for power and independence, could face internal fragmentation and chaos if the government falls.

The tensions in Iran and the US reactions

Following reports of his rejection of an Israeli plan to kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Trump said this week that the supreme leader of Iran is an “easy target”.

“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. "He's an easy target, but safe there - there's no way we're going to take him out (not kill!), at least not now."

Risks of regime change

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also did not rule out targeting Khamenei, saying the Supreme Leader's death "will not escalate the conflict, but end it." On Thursday, Defense Minister Israel Katz said Khamenei should not "continue to exist" after an Iranian missile hit a hospital in Israel.

Iran is a nation of over 90 million people and has one of the oldest continuous cultures in the world. Despite a diverse population of ethnic and religious groups that have sought autonomy at various times, the Islamic Republic has kept its borders largely stable for about 100 years.

The comments from Israeli and US officials have sparked speculation about what Iran might look like if Khamenei is killed. Experts warn that the country could face a range of scenarios, including rainstorms or even civil war.

Consequences of a regime change

The 86-year-old cleric has ruled Iran as its highest authority for more than 35 years, coming to power a decade after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled a U.S.-backed monarch. Over the years he has consolidated power and ruled with a heavy hand under strict Islamic legislation. He has crushed wave after wave of protests demanding social freedoms and expanded Iran's reach far beyond its borders through a network of proxy militias.

It is uncertain whether Khamenei will die and who might replace him. The supreme leader is elected for life by the 88-member Assembly of Experts and does not name an official successor. It is unclear who might succeed Khamenei, but the process could attract separatist groups that have long harbored an antipathy to the Islamic Republic.

Israel has already killed several key figures in Iran's military and experts say the regime is now at its weakest. Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C., said regime change would require Israel or the United States to have a person in mind to replace Khamenei and send troops into the country.

The role of Reza Pahlavi

The figure Israel would likely prefer is Reza Pahlavi, the U.S.-based son of the deposed Iranian monarch who was dethroned in 1979. Pahlavi has supported Israel's actions, earning him praise from some in the Iranian diaspora but also accusations of betrayal from many others. “Soon in Tehran,” Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli posted on X on Friday, sharing a picture of himself shaking hands with a smiling Pahlavi. Pahlavi told BBC News that Israel's conflict with Iran is an opportunity to overthrow the Iranian regime.

Stability and the risk of chaos

If the supreme leader is killed and the Guardian Council delays naming a successor, the risk of instability could increase, experts warn. A possible consequence of Khamenei's killing could be the total collapse of the regime. Parsi pointed out: “Regime collapse means bringing down the state and allowing the subsequent chaos to unfold.”

If the Iranian regime falls, several scenarios could follow that would not be to the advantage of the United States or neighboring countries. Hamed Mousavi, an associate professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, warned that military interventions “rarely lead to democratization.” "See the example of Iraq and Afghanistan... Both countries have been unstable for many years," Mousavi said, adding that Iran is "even more complicated" than those nations.

The impact on ethnic groups in Iran

Iran has a diverse population including Persians, Azerbaijanis, Arabs, Baloch and Kurds. Under Khamenei's decades-long rule, the Islamic Republic has largely tried to control civil and ethnic unrest, despite abuses some groups have suffered. Minorities faced discrimination in their access to education, employment, adequate housing and political office, Amnesty International reported last year.

Azerbaijanis make up about 16% of Iran's total population and are the largest and most integrated minority in the Islamic Republic, but have nonetheless experienced inequalities. Arabs, who number up to 4 million people, have also faced marginalization over the years. The Baloch, a group of tribes who speak the Balochi language, make up nearly 5 million of Iran's population. The predominantly Sunni group extends into neighboring Pakistan and Afghanistan, raising the possibility that separatist conflicts could spill over the borders.

Another ethnic group are the Kurds, who make up around 10% of Iran's population and live mainly on the borders with Iraq and Türkiye. They face deep-rooted discrimination, Amnesty reported. A Kurdish rebellion in Iran would also be a major concern for neighbors Iraq and Türkiye, both of which have large Kurdish minorities seeking independence. If the Iranian regime falls, “support for ethnic separatist groups from the Israelis and perhaps the US would be expected,” Parsi commented, warning of a situation in which the remnants of the state would be wiped out in the fight against separatists.

Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, executive director of the Nonviolent Initiative for Democracy and a former Iranian lawmaker who opposes the current regime, expressed fears that Iran could descend into civil conflict if the current rule falls. "I want to free myself from this regime. I am the opposition," she told CNN. “My biggest concern is… I see signs of civil war.”