Israel threatens Iran with the killing of the head - possible consequences

Israel threatens Iran with the killing of the head - possible consequences

While US President Donald Trump is thinking about joining Iran's Israeli attack, more and more questions arise as to whether such an intervention could lead to a change of regime in Tehran. Such an output carries the risk of splitting the country and sending shock waves through the region. Experts warn that Iran, which is characterized by long -lasting separatist movements, that fight for power and independence could be faced with internal fragmentation and chaos if the government falls.

The tensions in Iran and the reactions of the USA

After reporting on the rejection of an Israeli plan to kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Trump explained this week that the Supreme Guide Irans is a "easy goal".

"We know exactly where the so -called 'top leader' is hiding," Trump wrote in a contribution to Truth Social on Tuesday. "He is an easy goal, but safe there - we will not switch it off (do not kill!) Under no circumstances, at least not now."

Risks of a change of regime

The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also did not rule out Khamenei, and expressed that the death of the top guide "will not escalate the conflict, but will end". On Thursday, Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Khamenei should not "continue" after an Iranian Missile had met a hospital in Israel.

Iran is a nation with over 90 million people and has one of the oldest continuous cultures in the world. Despite a diverse population of ethnic and religious groups who have sought autonomy at different times, the Islamic Republic has kept its limits largely stable for about 100 years.

The comments from Israeli and US officials have triggered speculation of what Iran could look like when khameni is killed. Experts warn that the country could be confronted with a number of scenarios, including debris or even civil war.

consequences of a change of regime

The 86-year-old cleric has ruled Iran for more than 35 years as the highest authority and came to power for a decade after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, which fell a monarch supported by the United States. Over the years, he has consolidated power and ruled with a hard hand under strict Islamic legislation. He has depressed wave of wave of protests that demanded social freedoms and extended the reach of Iran far beyond its limits by a network of representative militias.

whether Khamenei dies and who could replace it is uncertain. The top guide is chosen for life by the 88 members and does not give an official successor. It is unclear who could succeed Khamenei, but this process could attract separatist groups that have long dislike the Islamic Republic.

Israel has already killed several key people in the Iranian military, and experts say that the regime is now weakest. Trita Parsi, Vice President of the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C., said that a change of regime would require that Israel or the United States had a person in mind to replace Khameni and send troops into the country.

The role of Reza Pahlavi

The figure that Israel would probably prefer is is Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Iranian monarch, who was depressed in the United States, who was dethroned in 1979. Pahlavi has supported Israel's measures, which praised him from some in the Iranian diaspora, but also accusations of betraying many others. "Soon in Tehran," posted the Israeli minister of diaspora affairs Amichai Chikli on Friday on X and published a picture on which he shakes his hand with a smiling Pahlavi. Pahlavi told BBC News that Israel's conflict with Iran was an opportunity to overthrow the Iranian regime.

stability and the risk of chaos

If the top guide is killed and the guardian council delays the appointment of a successor, the risk of instability could increase, experts warn. A possible consequence of the killing of Khameneis could be the total collapse of the regime. Parsi pointed out: "Regime collapse means to bring the state down and to have the chaos that followed."

If the Iranian regime falls, several scenarios could follow that would not be the advantage of the USA or neighboring countries. Hamed Mousavi, extraordinary professor of International relationships at the University of Tehran, warned that military interventions "rarely lead to democratization". "See the example of Iraq and Afghanistan ... Both countries have been unstable for many years," said Mousavi and added that Iran was "even more complicated" than these nations.

The effects on ethnic groups in Iran

Iran has a diverse population, including Perser, Azerbaijanese, Arabs, Baloch and Kurds. Under Khamenis decades of rule, the Islamic Republic has largely tried to control civilian and ethnic unrest, despite the abuse that some groups have experienced. Minorities were discriminated against in their access to education, employment, adequate living space and political offices, as Amnesty International reported last year.

Azerbaijanese make up about 16 % of the total population of Iran and are part of the largest and best integrated minority in the Islamic Republic, but have nevertheless experienced inequalities. Arabs, which count up to 4 million people, were also affected by marginalization over the years. The Baloch, a group of tribes that speak the Balochi language, make up almost 5 million of the Iranian population. The predominantly Sunni group extends to the neighboring Pakistan and Afghanistan, which contains the possibility that separatist conflicts spill across the borders.

Another ethnic group are the Kurds, which make up about 10 % of the Iranian population and mainly settle at the borders to Iraq and Türkiye. They are exposed to deeply rooted discrimination, as Amnesty reported. A Kurdish rebellion in Iran would also be a great concern for the neighbors Iraq and Türkiye, both of which have great Kurdish minorities with the pursuit of independence. If the Iranian regime falls, "with support for ethnic separatist groups on the part of the Israelis and perhaps the United States," commented Parsi and warned of a state in which the remains of the state would be rubbed in the fight against separatists.

FATEMEH Haghighatjoo, Managing Director of the Nonviolent Initiative for Democracy and former Iranian MPs, who rejects the current regime, expressed fears that Iran could slide into a citizens' conflict if the current rule falls. "I want to free myself from this regime. I am the opposition," she said in an interview with CNN. "My biggest concern is ... I see the signs of a civil war."