Causes of Ukraine War Diplomacy: An Overview in a Few Days

Causes of Ukraine War Diplomacy: An Overview in a Few Days

Talks between President Donald Trump, President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky this week mark the most intensive diplomacy launched since Russia's invasion three years ago to end the war in Ukraine.

The first signs are sobering

The first indicators are sobering, as Putin has rejected Trump's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire has rejected. Yet Trump presents the opening of any dialogue as a triumph. Both leaders are trying to manipulate diplomacy to their own advantage while simultaneously cultivating public images - particularly to shift responsibility should everything fail.

Progress or illusion?

The White House is promoting an illusion of meaningful progress, both to maintain the chances of a peace process and to support the increasingly questionable notion that Trump is a great negotiator capable of making peace.

Putin firmly rejected Trump's decisive call for a ceasefire. He is simply unwilling to end the war, which is reflected in a new set of conditions that Ukraine could never agree to if it wants to survive as a sovereign state. In addition, the Kremlin does not want to alienate Trump and is offering him a tempting glimpse into a relationship between major powers in order to ensnare the president.

Zelensky's strategy

Zelensky is a quick learner. He can imagine a repetition of the catastrophic outbreak in the Oval Office cannot deliver and now agrees to almost everything Trump demands. Ironically, Zelensky's once provocative argument - that Putin cannot be trusted when it comes to ceasefire agreements - has now proven true.

Ukraine and Russia are fighting for the president's attention and looking for someone to blame for the lack of peace efforts. After a night of violence, both sides accused each other of violating an agreement brokered in part by Trump to avoid attacks on energy infrastructure. This alienation in such a small detail undermines Trump's optimistic statements that a peace agreement is within reach.

The pressure on the USA

The White House has publicly ignored Putin's intransigence, praising the tone of his phone call with Trump on Tuesday and planning technical talks with the Russians in Saudi Arabia in the coming days.

Creating an illusion of progress can be an essential aspect of peace negotiations to give conflicting parties an incentive to stay at the negotiating table. But in this case, the alternate reality also appears designed to save face for a president who claimed he could resolve the war within 24 hours if voters sent him back to the White House. In their phone call on Tuesday, Putin clearly has the upper hand over a US president who is unwilling to put pressure on the Kremlin chief.

Trump and Zelensky – a new approach?

On the other hand, Trump appears to have softened on Zelensky, perhaps due to the Ukrainian president's more flattering tone. During their hour-long phone call on Wednesday, Trump said he would help find urgently needed air defenses for Ukraine in Europe. And White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that the US would continue to provide military assistance and intelligence to Ukraine. This is important because Trump cut off such support to force Kiev to agree to his 30-day ceasefire plan.

"I just finished a very good phone call with President Zelensky of Ukraine. It lasted about an hour," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Much of the discussion was based on yesterday's phone call with President Putin to reconcile Russia and Ukraine on their concerns and needs. We are on a very good path." Trump's optimistic assessment was almost absurd. But it's better than a few weeks ago, when he called Zelensky a "dictator."

Russia's goals remain unchanged

After his phone calls with Putin and Zelensky, Trump's dream of a peace agreement seems further away than ever. Still, if all of this week's drama is indeed the start of a real push to bring about a fair and lasting solution, Trump will prove his doubters wrong.

Russian goals have not changed since the invasion. The conditions that Putin demands for a peace deal - including the replacement of the current Ukrainian government, a demobilization of Kiev troops and the desire to withdraw NATO from Eastern Europe - remain in place.

Ukraine is adapting

Zelensky has adjusted his strategy and tried to present himself as the party that is obviously working for peace. He thanked Trump for a “good and productive start to cooperation” and expressed his conviction that lasting peace could be achieved this year together with the USA under American leadership.

While Ukraine seeks to accommodate White House policy, it is also working on a different approach with the Europeans, who are building a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine if Trump withdraws from negotiations. Zelensky's top adviser, Andriy Yermak, for example, pushed on Wednesday for his country's accelerated accession to the European Union, which he saw as crucial to strengthening Europe's security.