Causes of Ukraine War Diplomacy: An overview in a few days
Causes of Ukraine War Diplomacy: An overview in a few days
The talks between President Donald Trump, President Vladimir Putin and President Wolodymyr Selenskyj this week mark the most intensive diplomacy that has been launched since Russia's invasion three years ago to end the war in Ukraine.
first signs are sobering
The first indicators are sobering because Putin Trump's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire rejected . Nevertheless, Trump presents the opening of every dialogue as a triumph. Both heads of the state try to manipulate diplomacy in their own favor and at the same time maintain public image - especially to pass on responsibility, everything should fail.
progress or illusion?
The White House propagates an illusion of significant progress, both in order to maintain the chances of a peace process, as well as to support the increasingly questionable idea that Trump is a great negotiator who is able to create peace.
Putin decidedly rejected Trump's decisive demand for an armistice. He is simply not ready to end the war, which shows in a new series of conditions that Ukraine could never agree to if it wants to survive as a sovereign state. In addition, the Kremlin Trump does not want to alienate and offers him a tempting insight into a relationship between great powers to make the president.
Selenskyj's strategy
selenskyj is a quick learner. He can repeat a repetition of the catastrophic outbreak in the oval office Almost everything that Trump demands. Ironically, Selenskyj's once provocative argument - that Putin could not be trusted in terms of ceasefire agreement - now truthful.
Ukraine and Russia fight for the president's attention and are looking for culprits for the lack of peace efforts. After a violent night, both sides accused each other, some of which have violated Trump's agreement in order to avoid attacks on the energy infrastructure. This alienation in such a small detail undermines Trump's optimistic statements that a peace agreement is within reach.
The pressure on the USA
The White House has publicly ignored Putin's inimitableity, praises the tone of his phone call with Trump on Tuesday and is planning technical discussions with the Russians in the coming days in Saudi Arabia.
The creation of an illusion of progress can be an essential aspect of peace negotiations in order to give the parties to the conflict an incentive to stay at the negotiating table. But in this case, the alternative reality also seems to be intended to maintain the face of a president who claimed to be able to solve the war within 24 hours if the voters send it back to the White House. In her phone call on Tuesday, Putin clearly has the upper hand through a US president who is not willing to put pressure on the Kremlin boss.
Trump and Selenskyj - a new approach?
On the other hand, Trump seems to have decreased at Selenskyj, possibly due to the more flattering tone of the Ukrainian president. During her one -hour call on Wednesday, Trump said that he would help find urgently needed air defense agents for Ukraine in Europe. And the White House press spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, announced that the United States would continue to provide military help and intelligence information to Ukraine. This is important because Trump had hired such support in order to force Kiev to be approved for his 30-day ceasefire plan."I just completed a very good phone call with President Selenskyj from Ukraine. It took about an hour," Trump wrote about Truth. "A large part of the discussion was based on yesterday's phone call with President Putin to reconcile Russia and Ukraine with regard to their concerns and needs. We are on a very good way." Trump's optimistic assessment was almost absurd. But it is better than a few weeks ago when he called Selenskyj as a "dictator".
Russia's goals remain unchanged
After his phone calls to Putin and Selenskyj, Trump's dream of a peace agreement seems to be further away than ever before. Nevertheless, if all the drama this week is actually the start of a real advance to bring about a fair and permanent solution, Trump will refute his doubters.
The Russian goals have not changed since the invasion. The conditions that Putin requires for a peace treaty - including the exchange of the current Ukrainian government, a demobilization of the Kiev troops and the desire to withdraw NATO from Eastern Europe.
ukraine adapts
Selenskyj has adapted his strategy and tried to present itself as the party that obviously works on peace. He thanked Trump for a "good and productive start to the collaboration" and said the conviction that, together with the USA under American leadership, permanent peace could be achieved.
While Ukraine is trying to take the White House of politics into account, it works in parallel on another approach with the Europeans who build a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine if Trump withdraws from the negotiations. Selenskyj's top consultant, Andrij Jermak, urged, for example, to the accelerated accession of his country to the European Union on Wednesday.