New findings on the prediction of extreme weather in Europe

New findings on the prediction of extreme weather in Europe

The city of Graz and the Wegener Center at the University of Graz are at the center of new, significant research on extreme weather events that are increasingly occurring due to climate change. The scientists at Wegener Center are working to improve the predictions for such weather phenomena that are increasingly taking extreme forms such as heavy rain, heat waves or storms. These developments are not only worrying, but also of global scope.

Recent deletion -like rain in Spain illustrate the current extent of this weather extreme in Europe. Researchers find that the climate plays an outstanding role in predicting such disasters. The estimates about the fatalities and the economic losses are particularly alarming: Between 85,000 and 145,000 human lives have been lost in the past forty years alone due to such events, which has caused half a trillion euros in economic damage, according to the information from the European Environment Agency.

research approaches and their importance

The team under the direction of Albert Ossó has determined decisive causes of problematic modeling in terms of extreme weather. These findings published in the journal "Geophysical Research Letters" aim to improve the accuracy of climate models. Ossó emphasizes how important it is to better understand the meteorological patterns in order to analyze and react to future weather events.

A focus of current research is on the so -called Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). This determines how the jet stream runs over the North Atlantic and has a direct influence on the weather in Europe during the warm months. In the positive phase of the SNAO, the jet stream is shifted north, which often results in moist conditions in Northern Europe, while Central Europe tends to remain dry. In the negative case, these conditions are reversed, which can lead to more intensive rainfall in Central Europe.

The researchers have also found that existing climatic simulations often overestimate the duration of weather phenomena, which leads to inaccurate predictions. In order to make reliable statements about the frequency and the duration of future extreme weather events in a changing climate, it is essential to make the current climate models accurate. Ossó explains: "We have found that simulations tend to overestimate the duration of such periods in summer." These findings open up new perspectives to refine climatic predictions and the preparation for possible future challenges.

The scientific examination of extreme weather conditions remains a central topic for research and society as a whole. For more information on this exciting topic, a look at the detailed report on www.meinbezirk.at .