Putin's stop offer: tactical game or dangerous deception?

Putin's stop offer: tactical game or dangerous deception?

In a surprising twist, Moscow has proposed a halt to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the current front line. However, this was viewed with skepticism by experts. According to oe24.at this offer could not prevent future aggression by Russia, insofar as it is linked to a moratorium on Western military aid to Ukraine.

The US Institute for War Studies (ISW) emphasizes that an agreement to freeze the front lines without full Russian control over the disputed Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts is problematic. ISW warns that Ukraine's current front lines do not provide strategic depth to defend against renewed attacks. Russian forces are currently facing the city of Kherson and are only 25 kilometers from Zaporizhia and 20 kilometers from Kharkiv.

Risks of an agreement

Moscow's offer could also pose strategic risks. According to n-tv.de, such an agreement carries the risk that Russia could continue to pursue territorial claims in the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. Since the war of aggression began on February 24, 2022, Russia has almost completely captured Luhansk and around three-fifths each of Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson.

Experts argue that Russia may be willing to temporarily forego enforcing its claims to Ukrainian-controlled territories in order to obtain concessions from the United States. Potentially, these concessions could include the installation of a pro-Russian government in Kiev and a downsizing of the Ukrainian military.

The context of the conflict

The war between Russia and Ukraine, considered the largest regional war in Europe since 1945, began in 2014 and has had a dismal outcome since then. bpb.de reports that Ukraine has since recaptured over half of the territory lost after February 24, 2022, amid Russian attempts to land to advance were largely prevented.

Both sides appear to have mobilized new resources to maintain the intensity of the fighting. In this context, it is unclear how long the imbalance between their political goals and military means can last. The war is presented by Russia as a fight to save the country in order to mobilize broader sections of the population.

In addition, the situation on the fronts is currently a war of attrition, with a standstill in many areas. Ukraine must develop new tactics to break the deadlock and reclaim occupied territories. The current balance could change rapidly depending on the availability of air weapons and munitions production.

Future developments in this complex situation will be decisively influenced by both military and political dynamics. The international community is paying close attention to Moscow's next steps and the possible reactions of Western states to ensure stability in the region.