Answer to the central question about Trump's strike against Iran

Answer to the central question about Trump's strike against Iran

After the nightly airstrikes by the United States on Iran's secret nuclear program, the most important question is: What is left of this program? The answer could shape the region for decades to come and be crucial to US President Donald Trump's decision to start another conflict in the Middle East.

The uncertainty of intelligence

However, this answer is complicated by the unpredictable and changeable nature of intelligence information. On the one hand, the public discussion about the nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan have to force Tehran to store its nuclear secrets elsewhere. Iran claims its program is entirely peaceful, even though the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency has encountered uranium particles that enriched up to 83% are – just below weapons-grade level.

Hidden elements of the nuclear program

If Israel claims that Iran's nuclear program has a hidden element, then it certainly cannot be stored in the same places where UN inspectors operate. In the case of Fordow, there have been public discussions for days about which American bombs can penetrate its deep caves.

The raw materials required for an atomic bomb are small: 20 kilograms of highly enriched uranium are sufficient. The ingredients for several devices could be stored in a van. These could be hidden anywhere in Iran. However, the technology to create a weapon is more complicated and requires human expertise, which Israel has targeted over the past 10 days by targeting key people.

The challenge of surveillance

It is difficult to imagine that Iran would suddenly be able to make this leap while under intense bombardment by the Israeli Air Force, now also with the open involvement of the US and its extensive surveillance apparatus.

But it remains uncertain, and Israel cannot have both sides. Claiming that Iran's program is advanced and secret also runs the risk of something happening that you don't know about. Could Iran have assembled all the elements it needed, or even a nuclear bomb, somewhere else and was just waiting?

The reactions to attacks and counterarguments

The counterargument is compelling: Israel has the ability to kill Iranian nuclear scientists and military commandos as they sleep in their homes - specific rooms in apartment blocks were hit in the first wave of attacks on June 13. This indicates the broad and impressive depth of penetration into large parts of Tehran's command structure. No operation is perfect, and it is possible that Washington and Tel Aviv knew a lot about the situation.

It wasn't just that Fordow mountain fortress that was hit. It is likely that as the dust settles and satellite images provide more clarity on damage assessments, we will learn of additional targets that we did not know about a week ago. For opponents of Iran's nuclear ambitions - almost all but a handful of Iranian hardliners - this should provide some measure of satisfaction.

The remaining challenges for Iran

However, it is likely that the attacks on Saturday night did not knock out everything - not every expert or every fissile material. Now it will be a matter of pursuing what's left - chasing after the survivors and looking for options in case panicked elements of the nuclear project make mistakes while dispersing or searching through the rubble.

What remains will likely be the parts of Iran's program that were unknown, if any. Tehran may decide that it would be better not to reveal or pursue this biggest secret until the threat of Israeli attacks subsides. Does it make sense to blurt it out now, at the height of surveillance and bombing?

Diplomatic Efforts and Their Challenges

Diplomacy could – as Trump suggested with his late-night post on Truth Social that “NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!” – now appear again. But the face of diplomacy has completely changed compared to a week ago. Iranian officials had hinted to the media that they might be willing to abandon enrichment during talks last week. The demands on Iran could now focus on its ballistic missile program, the disarmament of which has long been demanded by US Hawks.

This appears to be happening rapidly already, through the intensive use of missiles against Israel and as a result of Israeli strikes that claim to have taken out most of its launch pads.

The complex political situation in Iran

That Iran's negotiating wish list has now changed significantly - as much of what it hoped to retain has been destroyed or deployed - highlights the challenge facing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Its airspace is in the hands of a hostile air force, its nuclear program is badly damaged, and its military infrastructure and command are shattered, requiring it to constantly adapt and replace to survive. This limits his immediate, cheap options for an answer. Direct attacks on U.S. bases would simply invite violent U.S. retaliation and could prove ineffective after so much forewarning.

Asymmetrical responses and strategic patience

Iran has generally adopted asymmetric responses to compensate for its smaller budgets and capabilities. We could see this in the capitals of Europe and in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. Iran must both demonstrate some form of deterrence and de-escalate to survive.

But Iran's ability to think long-term and its strategic patience will stand it in good stead. There are no real election cycles to impede the Ayatollah's decision-making. The Iranians have time to regroup and react when the situation calms down.

The Role of the United States in the Middle East

The United States, on the other hand, has a poor track record in the region. Last night they achieved the dubious distinction of having bombed a complete cartographic sweep of nations from Syria to Afghanistan in just 20 years. But they failed to topple the Assad regime in Syria and, despite years of effort, witnessed sweeping changes that eliminated one of Iran's key regional proxies. Their longest war, in Afghanistan, ended in humiliating fashion. Iraq also began with controversial information about weapons of mass destruction and ended in a fiasco after years of destruction and loss.

Iran is not Iraq, and last night was not March 20, 2003, when America's botched invasion of that country began. There is no ground element to Trump's ambitions in Iran, and his goal was something that was widely supported by allies and may have been within reach. But the U.S.'s questionable track record and the arrogance surrounding Trump's overwhelming use of force should heighten the region's alarm about the imponderables ahead.