Papal resignation unlikely: experts surprise with forecasts

Papal resignation unlikely: experts surprise with forecasts

As Benedict XVI. As the first pope to resign in 600 years, it shocked the Catholic Church. Now, two weeks after his stay in... hospital Due to pneumonia, there is speculation in the Vatican as to whether his successor Pope Francis could also resign.

Health of Pope Francis

"I think that the only circumstances in which he (Francis) would consider resigning, as he has said, would be if he were suffering from a long-term degenerative or debilitating disease that made it impossible for him to fully carry out the papal office," Austen Ivereigh, a biographer of the pope, told CNN.

The Pope was arrested on Friday because of one sudden attack of shortness of breath connected to a ventilator, the Vatican said. The incident was complicated by vomiting, which partially affected the Pope. A Vatican source said Friday that the next 24 to 48 hours will be crucial in determining whether the pope's health has deteriorated. On Saturday morning it was said that Francis was resting and had spent a peaceful night.

The Pope and the possibilities of resignation

Resigning from the papacy is not like resigning from a corporate president or CEO. There are no term limits or board of directors; it is a position considered to be for life. For Catholics, the Pope is the successor of St. Peter and carries out an office given by Jesus Christ himself. Nevertheless, the papacy is also an office, and advances in modern medicine and increasing life expectancy have created new scenarios. It also remains unclear how long the 88-year-old pope will remain in the hospital and how hislong-term forecastlooks.

Ivereigh stressed that the pope's age or infirmity is not a barrier, nor does the Catholic Church want to set a precedent requiring a pope to step down after a certain age or health condition. Furthermore, the biographer stated that this pope is “fully committed” and does not want a drastically reduced papal service.

Memories of Benedict XVI and the implications for Francis

This week brought back memories of the dramatic day when Benedict XVI, born Joseph Ratzinger, announced on February 11, 2013 that he was stepping down. This happened during a supposedly routine meeting of cardinals – a consistory – to vote on beatification proceedings. At the end of this meeting, the German Pope began speaking in Latin and shocked those present by announcing his resignation. Several cardinals leaned toward each other to ask if they had heard him correctly.

Parallels to Benedict's resignation were drawn when the Vatican announced Tuesday that Francis had called a consistory at an unspecified date to consider candidates for beatification. This came during a meeting at the hospital where he met with some of his most senior officials, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Holy See's secretary of state, and Archbishop Edgar Peña Parra, the pope's de facto boss.

The challenges during the pontificate

“Following the surprise of Ratzinger’s resignation, consistories have now become highly political at certain difficult times in the church,” said Marco Politi, a respected Vatican commentator and author of a new book about Francis’ pontificate called “The Unfinished.” "I believe that the Pope is currently focused on getting through the crisis and completing the Jubilee Year. On his 89th birthday he will be forced to ask himself whether he is still fit to lead the Church." The Catholic Church is in the midst of a year-long anniversary celebration, an event that traditionally takes place every 25 years.

Francis likes to keep people on their toes and knew the consistory announcement would spark a lot of speculation. It is unlikely that the Pope would want to reveal his hand in such a major decision.

Freedom and the possibility of withdrawal

“For Francis, the freedom to judge these questions is absolute,” Ivereigh said. Freedom is important because, according to canon law, a papal resignation must be “freely and properly expressed” and not “accepted by anyone.” A pontiff must not be under external pressure or coercion when making his decision.

In the past, Francis has said the papacy is "ad vitam" (which means "until the end of life" in Latin) and that stepping down is not on his agenda. Still, he has never ruled out stepping down, saying Benedict's decision "opened the door" for future popes to retire.

A conclave is called in the same way as it would be after a resignation, as in the case of a papal death; however, Benedict changed the law in 2013 to hold the election more quickly.

The Argentine pope is driven by a deep sense of mission and has shown a determination to recover since his hospitalization, despite battling pneumonia in both lungs. Archbishop Paul Gallagher, the Vatican's foreign minister, indicated this week that the pope's resignation is not currently on the table and that Francis will do everything he can to recover.

“If it’s God’s will for him to get better, great,” he said he to America, a Catholic publication. "If it is God's will that he will not, then he will accept that. That is the spirit of his life..."

This Pope often surprises. And if Francis does resign, it is very likely that he would do so at a time when people least expect it.