Kremlin's 30-hour ceasefire: Blame game against Ukraine – Trump agrees?

Kremlin's 30-hour ceasefire: Blame game against Ukraine – Trump agrees?

It was unexpected, barely implemented and not even extended. But the hopeless short-lived Easter chest The Kremlin was aimed directly at US President Donald Trump and was intended to shift blame for his disastrous peace efforts in the Ukraine conflict.

The skepticism towards the Easter chest

When Russian President Vladimir Putin unexpectedly announced a 30-hour ceasefire on Saturday, there was already skepticism in Ukraine and beyond whether it would be more than just a cynical PR move, amid growing criticism that Moscow had become a drag on peace. But it also revealed that Putin could suspend the conflict at any time, raising hopes that the short-term arms cuts could turn into something more substantial, perhaps even making room for a serious peace process.

No longer than 30 hours

Instead, the Easter Chest expired at exactly midnight on Sunday, exactly the time the Kremlin had always stated. Ukraine called on Russia to extend the ceasefire. But as far as we know, there haven't even been any discussions about an extension. For Moscow, this never seemed to be the beginning of the end of the war.

Reports of violations on both sides

From the moment the guns were supposed to fall silent at 6 p.m. Moscow time, there were reports of massive violations on both sides. The Ukrainian military accused Russian forces of carrying out 2,935 attacks along the sprawling front lines, including 1,882 incidents of shelling and 96 Russian ground attacks.

The Russian reaction

But it is the outraged Russian calls for unfair play that the Kremlin hopes Trump will hear loud and clear. Russian officials claimed to have identified nearly 5,000 Ukrainian violations and reiterated that a longer ceasefire, such as the 30 days proposed by Trump, already accepted by Kiev but rejected by Moscow, was not feasible.

A gesture of goodwill?

“Ukraine, by failing to comply with the Easter truce proposed by President Vladimir Putin, has shown that it is unable to cease fire even for 30 hours,” Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's special envoy for Kiev regime crimes, said on the Kremlin-controlled television program on Sunday.

The Kremlin's concerns and the role of the USA

For the Kremlin, this was a goodwill gesture in the form of a Russian ceasefire that exposed the Ukrainian leadership and its European backers as the real brakes on a Trump deal. The White House has repeated Kremlin statements in the past, and it might be right to think that it could potentially do so again.

Trump and the ceasefire

Concern is growing in Moscow about what could happen if an unpredictable Trump actually backs away from his efforts to bring peace in Ukraine, as he has threatened, if progress is not made soon. Putin's biggest concern is that Trump will shift blame to Russia, increase U.S. support for Kiev and impose severe new economic sanctions on Moscow, potentially ending the benefits of resetting U.S.-Russian relations.

Ongoing US priorities

The US remains “committed to achieving a full and comprehensive ceasefire,” a State Department spokesman said on Sunday, after Kiev accused Moscow of repeatedly violating the ceasefire. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week that Washington could abandon its efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine within "days" if there is no sign of progress.

The impact on Trump's peace process

Convincing Trump that Ukraine, not Russia, is responsible for the ultimate failure of his peace process is therefore an important goal of the Kremlin and probably a key reason why the Easter Chest was declared.

Optimism despite setbacks

Before it ended on Sunday evening, with the Kremlin saying that Putin had given no order to extend the ceasefire, there were signs that Trump remained committed - for now. "Hopefully Russia and Ukraine will make a deal this week. Both will then do big business with a prospering United States of America and make a fortune," Trump posted in all caps on Truth Social on Sunday while returning from a golf course he owns outside Washington. His words were optimistic, and Trump seems strangely confident at the moment that a deal can still be reached, despite dashed hopes over the weekend for a breakthrough in the Ukraine war.