European offer for Ukraine power carries considerable risks

European offer for Ukraine power carries considerable risks

Before the car accident of President Wolodymyr Selenskyj in the White House last month, British Prime Minister Keir Strander confidently spoke about stationing British soldiers in Ukraine - which was widely understood as a land forces - in the event of an armistice with Russia.

support for Ukraine

After the meeting in Washington, Strauber, together with the French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders, confirmed their support for the Ukrainian president. "This is not the moment for further discussions," said Starmer after a significant meeting of heads of state and government in London the following day. "It's time to act."

The slow process

But now, four weeks later and after two other big meetings of European leaders, the overwhelming feeling remains that the process has become unstoppable. We should probably not be surprised about that.

REASSRANCE FORCE instead of peace troops

The current term is now a "Reafurance Force" for Ukraine-the word "peace troops" is no longer part of the vocabulary. According to Macron, such a troop would not act on the front line and do not act on behalf of the Ukrainian armed forces.

point of view of British and French military leadership

The latest reports indicate that London, especially, could be cool towards the idea of troops on site, but Macron assured that nothing has been excluded so far. "We look into the air, at the sea and also at the ground. Nothing is excluded," he said, adding: "This (Reasturance) troops are used in Ukraine."

evaluation of military needs

Further details will be announced in due course, but the military chiefs of the UK and France now have the task of determining the number of troops with their Ukrainian colleagues that would form such a troop, as well as their location and operations.

challenges

In military language use, it is now time to work on the "operating concept" that would be based on such a troop. Which possible threats would be expected? What would the commitment rules look like? These questions are not easy and will probably take weeks. Inevitably, the answers must also take into account a limited or non -existent participation of the United States, which should further delay the planning.

realistic ambitions for Ukraine

for Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Defense Minister of Ukraine, the ambitions must remain realistic. He indicates the obvious logistical challenges that arise from the massive 1,000 kilometer front line of his country with Russia. In addition, the likelihood of striker and Macron would approve rules for the use that could allow European troops to fight directly with Russian soldiers. In his opinion, a preliminary laying of British or French land forces would be ineffective.

European security policy rethink

There were many discussions that Europe would intervene and support security arrangements, but if they end up sending 10,000 people to Kiev who cannot leave the city, it will certainly not change the calculations of Russia, ”he said. In fact, such a step could even make Europe appear weaker, since the temptation for Russia, London and Paris will humiliate - by breaking up an armor from an attack, the hundred of kilometers from British and French troops in the capital - could be difficult to resist.

Alternative strategies for Europe

in a paper that was written for the Royal United Services based in London, a thoughts of defense, Zagorodnyuk, together with two colleagues, argues that a better option for Europe could be "air forces on the ground" - an engagement to ensure the airspace of Ukraine from Russian attacks. This protection would most likely mean that British, French and other war planes will be stationed in Ukraine, together with flight crews and accompanying logistical support.

conclusion: a decisive step for Europe

Even a Reasturance Force that does not extend further than the use of air forces in Ukraine would be an important step for Europe. The potential credibility risks would continue to exist, but it would certainly be lower than with a closure of land forces. At the same time, Europe has to be extremely careful. To correctly manage expectations before a possible announcement is also decisive.

The credibility of any use will largely depend on how it behaves on the previously publicly discussed measures. If the impression arises that it falls too short, not only will Ukraine be disappointed. Putin and Trump will also see their assumptions that Europe is not able to act.