European bid for Ukraine power poses significant risks

European bid for Ukraine power poses significant risks

Even before President Volodymyr Zelensky's car crash in the White House last month, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke confidently about stationing British soldiers in Ukraine - what was widely understood to be land forces - in the event of a ceasefire with Russia.

Support for Ukraine

After the meeting in Washington, Starmer joined French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders in reiterating their support for the Ukrainian president. “This is not the moment for further discussion,” Starmer said after a significant meeting of heads of state and government in London the following day. “It’s time to act.”

The slow process

But now, four weeks later and after two more major meetings of European leaders, the overwhelming feeling remains that the process has stalled inexorably. We probably shouldn't be surprised by this.

Reassurance force instead of peacekeepers

The current term is now a “reassurance force” for Ukraine – the word “peacekeepers” is no longer part of the vocabulary. According to Macron, such a force would not operate on the front line and would not act on behalf of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Viewpoint of the British and French military leadership

Recent reports suggest that London, in particular, may be cool to the idea of ​​troops on the ground, but Macron assured that nothing has been ruled out so far. "We look in the air, at sea and also on the ground. Nothing is ruled out," he said, adding: "This (reassurance) force will be deployed in Ukraine."

Assessment of military needs

Further details will be announced in due course, but the military chiefs of Britain and France are now tasked with working with their Ukrainian counterparts to determine the number of troops such a force would form, as well as determining their location and operational capabilities.

Plan challenges

In military parlance, now is the time to work on the “operational concept” that would underpin such a force. What possible threats could be expected? What would the engagement rules be? These questions are not easy and will likely take weeks. Inevitably, the answers will also have to take into account limited or non-existent US participation, which is likely to further delay planning.

Realistic ambitions for Ukraine

For Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defense minister of Ukraine, ambitions must remain realistic. He points to the obvious logistical challenges posed by his country's massive 1,000-kilometer front line with Russia. In addition, the likelihood that Starmer and Macron would approve rules of operation that could allow European troops to fight directly with Russian soldiers is slim. In his opinion, bringing forward British or French land forces would be ineffective.

Rethink European security policy

There has been a lot of discussion about Europe stepping in and supporting security arrangements, but if they end up sending 10,000 people to Kiev who cannot leave the city, that certainly won't change Russia's calculations," he said. In fact, such a move could even make Europe appear weaker, as the temptation for Russia to humiliate London and Paris - by breaking a ceasefire with an attack taking place hundreds of kilometers from British and French troops in the capital - will be hard to resist could.

Alternative strategies for Europe

In a paper written for the London-based Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank, Zagorodnyuk, along with two colleagues, argues that a better option for Europe could be "air power on the ground" - a commitment to securing Ukraine's airspace from Russian attacks. This protection would most likely mean that British, French and other warplanes would be stationed in Ukraine, along with flight crews and accompanying logistical support.

Conclusion: A decisive step for Europe

Even a reassurance force that extends no further than the use of air power in Ukraine would be a significant step for Europe. The potential credibility risks would still exist, but would certainly be lower than if land forces were deployed. At the same time, Europe must be extremely careful. Properly managing expectations ahead of a potential announcement is also crucial.

The credibility of any deployment will largely depend on how it relates to the measures previously publicly discussed. If the impression arises that it falls short, it will not only be Ukraine that will be disappointed. Putin and Trump will also see their suspicions that Europe is unable to act confirmed.