Trump negotiates with Putin: Is West companies returning to Russia?

After the highest meeting between US and Russian representatives since the beginning of the Ukraine secretary, Dmitriev said without further details that he expects that a number of US companies could return in the second quarter.

The most likely is the return of companies that do not fall under sanctions, such as retailers and food producers, and not by companies in sectors such as energy and finance.

dmitriev expressed the conviction that large US oil companies that were successful in Russia would return.

The high -ranking Russian legislator Anatoly Aksakov expressed the opinion that Visa ( v ) and MasterCard ( Ma ) would soon resume their payment services. The two companies stated that their suspension continues to exist in Russia.

Why do companies may not return

hundreds of western companies, including Carlsberg and Unilever ( Ul ), published explanations in the days and weeks after the invasion in which they condemned the aggression against Ukraine and their Farewell from the country or the suspension of their companies as a moral decision.

If an agreement is to be achieved that rewarded Russia with Ukrainian territory, companies that criticize Moscow are running the risk of being damaged by returning.

from which sectors is a return excluded?

companies that deliver goods with both civil and military applications are subject to western restrictions.

Boeing ( Ba ) and Airbus, for example, have set the delivery of aircraft and spare parts to Russia. Other examples are semiconductors, telecommunications equipment and electronics. There is a lot of speculation about whether the talks between the United States and Russia could result in a weakening of the sanctions, but so far no concrete suggestions have been made.

In the meantime, the European Union passed the 16th package of anti-Russia sanctions on Wednesday.

The sanctions prohibit Russia to offer financial or energy -relevant services, and the explanations of Russian official, they expected to return western companies, appear to be wishful thinking for the time being.

How has the Russian market changed?

Some of the most popular brands in the world, from Starbucks ( sbux ) to ikea and levi’s ( Levi ) were replaced by Russian imitations. The more than 800 McDonald’s restaurants in Russia now operate under the brand vkusno & tochka (delicious & that's it). Starbucks sold his business to the restaurateur Anton Pinskiy and the rapper Timati, and the company is now called Stars Coffee.

The recapture of the market could be particularly difficult for western automobile manufacturers, since Chinese competitors have won a market share of more than 50 %, compared to less than 10 % three years ago. It is unclear how much Russia would be willing to support the return of European automobile manufacturers at the expense of Chinese companies, especially in view of the "partnership -based relationships without limits" between Moscow and Beijing, since the trade between the two countries has grown exponentially.

would Western companies be welcomed?

Moscow has long promised to react to what it sees as theft of Russian assets abroad, and has confiscated companies in Russia through presidential decrees and courts.

Russia is currently checking a handful of Western companies under the pretext of a “temporary administration” and intensifying the assets of the assets of companies with connections to foreign ownership. Most companies that left Russia were forced to sell their assets at greatly reduced prices. It could take a while to convince investors to get involved in the Russian market again.