Russia's summer offensive is becoming a crisis for Ukraine

Russia's summer offensive is becoming a crisis for Ukraine

Near Pokrovsk, in the east of Ukraine - The dark, moonless night is only interrupted by the hum of a... Russian Drones interrupted. Dmytro has not yet received a single patient in his small two-bed field hospital near Pokrovsk, a worrying sign in this situation. Dawn is breaking - the time when it is safest to evacuate the wounded from the front - but no one comes as the enemy drones circle incessantly overhead.

Difficult evacuation situation

“We have a very difficult situation with the evacuation,” says Dmytro. "Many of the wounded have to wait days for help. For the Russian drone pilots, it is an honor to kill medics and the wounded." That evening, no wounded soldiers reached the front line. The superiority of Moscow's drones in the skies above this stabilization point, just 12 kilometers from Russian troops, likely makes it impossible to safely deliver even armored vehicles to the wounded. The battle for the key city of Pokrovsk is raging on the streets - the Kremlin's focus for months, it now faces the danger of being encircled.

Russian advances in the East

Throughout the eastern Ukraine Russia's small advances add up. The country is exploiting a series of small advances and investing significant resources in an emerging summer offensive that could reshape the balance of power on the front lines. After four days of reporting in the villages behind Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk - two of the most hotly contested Ukrainian cities in the Donetsk region - CNN has observed the rapid change in control of the territory. Russian drones have been able to penetrate deep into areas that Ukrainian forces once relied on as havens of calm, while troops have struggled to mobilize the support needed to halt the ongoing enemy advance.

International reactions

The Russian offensive is gaining momentum as US President Donald Trump has drastically shortened his deadline for peace between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine from 50 days to as much as 12 days. Trump expressed his "great disappointment" in Putin and suggested that the Kremlin chief had already decided not to consider the ceasefire that the United States and its European allies have been demanding for months. This was received positively in Kiev and could put greater pressure on Western capitals to act to provide diplomatic or military support to Ukraine. Still, it seems unlikely that this will change course in Moscow, where superior manpower and tolerance for losses are beginning to show success.

Combat situation in Pokrovsk

The impact of the developing crisis is particularly felt around the city of Pokrovsk, which has been under attack by Moscow for months with heavy losses for Russian troops. A Ukrainian commander reported a “very bad scenario” in which troops in the neighboring city of Myrnohrad were in danger of being “encircled.” The officer added that the Russians had already advanced to the nearby village of Rodynske and were operating on the outskirts of Biletske along supply routes for Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk - an assessment confirmed by a Ukrainian police officer and another soldier to CNN on Tuesday.

Strategic implications of the offensive

The loss of Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka and Kupiansk in the north would trigger three separate crises for Kiev. First, these are urban areas from which Ukraine defends the rest of the Donetsk region it controls. Second, their loss would allow significant numbers of Russian forces to advance forcefully on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – the largest cities in Donetsk still under Ukrainian control. Third, this loss would expose Ukrainian forces while they have to defend mostly open agricultural territory, with no significant cities in the way.

The humanitarian situation

The pressure on Kiev is being further increased by Russia's first offensive wave in the region. Signs of this were also evident during a sustained attack on the city of Dobropilia, where Russian drones struck several civilian targets two weeks earlier. Residents anxiously wait for police to evacuate while the drone threat has increased significantly in recent days. A police official expressed surprise at the rapid dissolution of Ukrainian control and reported that civilian bus service abruptly ended, forcing residents to flee either in armored police vehicles or in their own vehicles.

Summary

The escalation of fighting in eastern Ukraine and ongoing Russian attacks pose enormous challenges to Kiev. The combination of a personnel shortage in the Ukrainian armed forces, the uncertainty about arms deliveries and the dynamic changes on the front are creating a perfect storm situation that is not only intensifying the fighting, but also has a decisive influence on the geopolitical framework.