Trump's Middle East trip leaves Netanyahu out again

Trump's Middle East trip leaves Netanyahu out again

The first stop was Riyadh. Just months after taking office, the President of the United States met with the King of Saudi Arabia to advance relations with the Arab world. From there it was on to another regional capital, where the leader of the free world gave a speech about a new vision for the Middle East. A station in Israel was conspicuously missing. It was the year 2009, and the president was Barack Obama. His decision not to visit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had just been returned to office, was seen as an affront. This marked the beginning of what many to this day see as Obama's fractured relationship with Israel, particularly with the long-serving prime minister.

Trump's upcoming visit to the Middle East

As President Donald Trump prepares for his first visit to the region of his second term, the same size elephant stands in the same corner of the Oval Office. Trump's travel schedule includes Saudi Arabia - where he arrives on Tuesday morning - Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The White House has called this a "historic return to the Middle East" and promised a "common goal of stability, opportunity and mutual respect." Israel is again not on the agenda. After several surprise announcements from Trump, including talks with Iran, a deal with Yemen's Houthi rebels and direct talks with Hamas, Israeli officials are worried that another surprise could be on the way.

Israel's concerns about Trump's trip

Israeli officials tried to ask about a stop in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv during Trump's trip, a source familiar with the matter confirmed. But the president dampened hopes last week when he said he had no plans to visit Israel. “We’ll do it at some point,” Trump said. “But not for this trip.” Trump could be persuaded to add the visit to his itinerary if he could show some kind of victory, be it a Gaza ceasefire agreement, a humanitarian aid plan or something similar. However, with Israel poised to expand its war in Gaza, there are currently no such results. Even with the upcoming one Release of hostage Edan Alexander On Monday, the prospects of a comprehensive ceasefire still appeared remote.

Netanyahu's dilemmatic position

“Without results, he won’t come to Israel,” the source said. Netanyahu was proud to be the first world leader to visit Trump in his second term in February. On his second visit in April, he became the first leader to try to begin negotiations on a new trade deal after Trump announced sweeping tariffs on imports. But the prime minister left the White House without a trade deal and with a new concern: Trump's surprise announcement that the US would begin over a new nuclear deal with Iran to negotiate. Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, noted that Netanyahu currently has little leverage in Washington: "There is nothing Netanyahu has that Trump wants, needs or can give him, unlike the Saudis, Qataris or Emiratis."

A politics of surprises

In the weeks leading up to Trump's trip, Israeli officials have expressed increasing concerns about what it might entail. In his negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, Trump is pursuing approaches that do not exclude the possibility of an Iranian civilian nuclear program; he agreed to a ceasefire with the Houthis that does not stop the Yemeni group's attacks on Israel; and, according to a Reuters report, he is no longer demanding that Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel to enable a Saudi civilian nuclear program. On Sunday, the Trump administration bypassed Israel and struck a deal with Hamas to release Edan Alexander, the last known living American hostage in Gaza. Trump called it a step “to end this brutal war and return all living hostages and relatives to their loved ones.”

Israeli officials are now worried about what a week of meetings and celebrations with Gulf states, all of which have criticized Israel's military assault on Gaza and the ongoing humanitarian blockade, will mean for Trump's stance on the war and ceasefire negotiations. The Trump administration is currently pushing hard on Egypt and Qatar to persuade Hamas to agree to release some hostages in exchange for several weeks of ceasefire and humanitarian aid. The Trump administration's goal appears to be even loftier; a familiar source told CNN that Alexander's release will lead to "immediate negotiations on a peace treaty." While a comprehensive agreement to end the war remains elusive, Trump has made clear that is his goal.

The pressure on Netanyahu is increasing

The situation between Trump and Netanyahu seems more complicated than ever. This comes shortly after Netanyahu doubled down on strategic warfare and made clear that he considers the defeat of Hamas more important than the return of the hostages. If a deal with Hamas to return more hostages appears within reach, the US government will increase pressure on Israel to accept it, a source familiar with the matter said. There have been significant doubts so far as to whether Gaza's Hamas leader, Mohammad Sinwar, would agree to a limited deal.

Trump's impetuous actions

“There has to be a practice of surprise on both sides,” said Dan Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think tank in Washington, DC. “Otherwise the trust necessary for this partnership will break down really quickly.” Shapiro added that Trump is moving forward "like a bulldozer" and is currently planning to make progress on a ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages. Netanyahu's tendency to hesitate when making major decisions, as well as his history of prioritizing his political viability, appears to have led to the White House's willingness to refrain from consulting with Israel on major decisions. “He is clearly frustrated with Netanyahu, like every other president who has worked with Netanyahu,” Shapiro noted.

Meanwhile, Trump's man in Jerusalem, US Ambassador Mike Huckabee, sought to play down speculation of a rift between the two leaders, saying he "fully expects" Trump to visit Israel this year. “No president has ever cared as much about the state of Israel as President Trump,” Huckabee said in an interview broadcast on Israel’s Channel 13 Saturday night. “And his relationship with the prime minister is, I think, remarkable.” But many Israelis see it differently.

The front page of the renowned newspaper Yedioth Ahronot last Thursday featured a cartoon of Trump with the headline “A Politics of Surprises.” While Trump prepares soup, Netanyahu sits nervously in the background. Even the vehemently pro-Trump newspaper Israel HaYom highlighted the obvious drifting apart with Netanyahu. Columnist Shai Golden wrote in an opinion article at the weekend: “The old adage ‘Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it’ perfectly captures the trap Netanyahu fell into with Trump.”