Iran's myth of invincibility is broken - far -reaching consequences are possible
Iran's myth of invincibility is broken - far -reaching consequences are possible
For over three decades, Iran has built up a network of deputies to carry its conflicts far beyond its own limits. As a result, the enemies were kept in chess, while the top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei strengthened his power. Direct attacks on Iran seemed unthinkable. But on June 13, this picture of invulnerability collapsed within hours when Israel surprisingly started an unprecedented attack deep in the Iranian area. This smashed Tehran's feeling of security and destroyed the carefully cultivated aura of strength.
The devastating attacks
The attacks not only caught high -ranking military leaders, but also some of the most prominent nuclear scientists Iran, including some who were surprised by their families in sleep. The human losses were significant: According to Hossein Kermanpour, the head of the information center in the Ministry of Health, 627 people died, including at least 49 women and 13 children. The United States joined Israel's campaign on Sunday and attacked three nuclear systems before they announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran the following day.
in times of uncertainty
Many in Iran and abroad now fear that the leadership of the country- damaged in their pride and their defenses- will strengthen their grip in Germany, while it takes a much more aggressive attitude in internal and foreign policy. Israel and the United States had brought the possibility of a change of regime as a potential result of their attacks on Iran, hoping to create a state that would be more benevolent to them. The regime has prompted the failure to achieve this goal to claim a victory.
resistance of the Iranian leadership
Iranian leadership has shown a remarkable resilience by replacing the lost heads and performing a tough procedure against those who consider it as the other of Israeli attack. Signs indicate that the regime now acts a lot of paranoid and intends to rule with an iron hand, out of fear of working with its enemies.
a battered government
After three years of conservative government under Ebrahim Raisi, Iran chose the reformer Masoud Pezeshkian last year, who had advertised for dialogue with the enemies of Iran to tackle the country's domestic political problems. Many Iranians saw him as a last hope to reach a nuclear agreement with the West and to integrate Iran back into the international community.
In the course of the 12-day conflict, Iran struck back and caused considerable damage in large cities such as Tel Aviv, with 28 people being killed. The ability to retaliate under fire was praised in Germany, even among those who interviewed CNN as opponents of the regime.
fears before repression
But there are growing fears about an upcoming offensive against reformists and demands for changes, while the regime tries to switch off alleged collaborators of Israel. By Wednesday, 700 people had already been arrested, accused of being "mercenaries of Israel", reported the state -affiliated news agency Fars.
an uncertain fate for reformists
neda, a 45-year-old Iranian, suspects that the Corps of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), an elitist branch of the Iranian military, "is probably becoming stronger and more power consolidates", especially if a disorganized lead creates a power vacuum.
The political future of Khameneis seems to be tense. According to reports, he is hidden in a bunker, with little access to communication means and has not yet appeared publicly since the ceasefire. "You (the government) were strong in her demonstration of power (against Israel), and that will look positive at short notice," Neda said to Cnn.
The influence of the political elites on Iran
The attacks on Iran encouraged the conservatives that have long been of the opinion that the West and Israel were not to be trusted and that negotiations are just a tactic to weaken the country. The fate of the reformists now depends on the silk thread, and only the time will show whether they can withstand the upcoming changes in leadership.
"The attacks have encouraged hardliners who argue that diplomacy with the West is pointless and that Iran has to remain militarily independent," said Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, compared to Cnn.
The reactions of the population
Israel's attack on Iran did not lead to a popular uprising, but showed a unit among the Iranians who saw their country attacked in an unjustified war. The feelings against Trump and Israel seem to be non -partisan. "Regardless of whether the people are supporters of our government or not, there is an anger on Trump and Israel," said Reza, a 35-year-old man from Iran.
A look into the future
The fate of reformists like Pezeshkian and his moderate camp remains uncertain. While the top guide was hidden, Pezeshkian spoke to the Iranians, made public statements and even took part in an anti -war protest in Tehran. The dismantling of the aura of invulnerability of the regime will change Iran, but how this change takes place is uncertain and depends on how the Iranian leadership and foreign powers react to the conflict.
The overarching teaching is that the Islamic Republic is not invulnerable, but it cannot be easily overthrown. The feeling of the Iranians to be safe within their national borders was shaken. "The Islamic Republic had a social contract with society that robbed it of all freedoms ... in exchange for security," remarked Vaez. "Now this picture has been destroyed in the eyes of the Iranian people."