Netanyahu overcomes political problems by confronting Israel's enemy

Netanyahu overcomes political problems by confronting Israel's enemy

Benjamin Netanyahu has once again regained control of Israeli politics. The country's longest-serving prime minister has turned himself into one with what appears to be a hugely successful opening military campaign pulled out of the crisis against Iran.

Netanyahu's return to power

“Bibi had his Churchill moment,” said an Israeli coalition official, using the prime minister’s nickname. A day before the start of what Israel called Operation Rising Lion, Netanyahu's government faced a confidence vote from the opposition. Two of the ultra-Orthodox parties threatened to vote against the government, which would have put great pressure on Netanyahu. But he survived the vote – with a considerable lead.

Successful military offensive

24 hours later, Israel began attacking Iran. In one moment, Netanyahu's political problems seemed to have disappeared. No more discussions about military service from ultra-Orthodox parties or loud demands from right-wing parties to pray at the Al-Aqsa complex. "The cards are in his hands now. If they weren't in his hands a week ago, they are now," the official said.

The weekly political protests - first against judicial reform and then against the war in Gaza - that accompanied Netanyahu during his time in office quickly disappeared, helped by orders from the Israeli Home Front Command banning large gatherings. Netanyahu's statements in his corruption trial have temporarily disappeared from the headlines. The stories of the hostages, who have been held in Gaza for over 600 days, are also no longer a main topic in the news.

Political unity in times of crisis

Netanyahu is aware of the political consequences of such a successful military action, according to a source close to the prime minister. However, this source emphasizes that this is not his focus at the moment. "If we do something good for Israel, it's good for us. It's good for you in the elections, it's good for you in the voters... He will reap this in the future," the source said.

Likewise, the source noted the political opposition's complete reversal from attacking Netanyahu to supporting him. “This time we have unity in almost the entire Knesset, apart from the Arab parties, and we have unity among the people,” the source said.

Iran's role in Netanyahu's career

Iran has been central to Netanyahu's identity for almost his entire political career. His time as Israel's longest-serving leader has been marked by warnings about Iran. Some were almost cartoonish, like when he held up a drawing of a bomb at the United Nations General Assembly in 2012 to warn about Tehran's advancing nuclear program. Since then, he has repeatedly lectured the world about the Ayatollahs' intentions from this and other stages.

Multiple threats to Israel

Israel's existential fear was not a single threat. It was the combination of all of them: an overwhelming attack by Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and Shiite proxies in Syria and Iraq. This was the nightmare scenario that Hamas tried to provoke with its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. It quickly became apparent that each of these groups had their own interests.

Hezbollah began attacks on Israel on October 8, but were far from the massive bombardments that worried the military leadership. Iran carried out two retaliatory strikes against Israel in April and October last year. The Houthis began firing drones and ballistic missiles from Yemen toward Israel, but never more than one or two at a time.

Successes and challenges

Over 20 months of war, Israel was able to defuse each of its threats. Hamas is a shadow of itself, Hezbollah is unthinkably weakened, and the Houthis do not have the arsenal to pose a serious threat. “They somehow managed to break the axis down into manageable pieces,” former US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro told CNN.

This allowed Israel to focus on Iran without fear of massive retaliation from another front. From Netanyahu's political perspective, the risk was far lower, especially since Israel's intelligence service had been calling Iran its own for years playground has treated. “At his age, he has a lot less political career to lose,” Shapiro said. “So it’s easier to throw aside the caution that has held him back in the past, especially to achieve a career-defining goal.”

The uncertain political future

However, it is not certain whether the military campaign against Iran will improve Netanyahu's long-term declining poll numbers, says Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute. In recent months, polls have repeatedly shown Netanyahu trailing far behind his political rival Naftali Bennett. Crucially, it indicated he would fall significantly short of an alliance with his current political partners, which could push him out of the leadership.

Plesner said the operation against Iran may not bring the political salvation that Netanyahu is hoping for, as it is an issue on which there is broad agreement on the left and right. “There is a tremendous consensus about the need for Israel to do everything it can to prevent Iran from going nuclear,” Plesner told CNN. “It is not an issue over which there has been an ideological dispute.”

Israel is also deep in the ongoing war Gaza Strip, with no clear exit options and a lack of comprehensive plans for what will happen afterwards. A second war, even with more tangible successes, poses further risk to Netanyahu if it drags on. “The administration’s ability to translate the military successes into a favorable diplomatic outcome remains to be determined,” Plesner said.